New York City's weather on May 18, 2026 will be recorded officially by NOAA, making this a fully resolvable prediction market event. The question asks whether the daily high temperature will land in the precise 74-75°F range—a narrow band that reflects typical late spring conditions for the Northeast. At 1% YES odds, market traders are heavily positioned for the actual high to fall outside this window, either cooler (below 74°F) or warmer (above 75°F). Historically, mid-May highs in New York City average around 70-75°F but show significant daily variance depending on continental air mass movement and jet stream positioning. The current 1% YES odds reflect high certainty among market participants that May 18's meteorological conditions will deliver a high outside this specific range, likely driven by seasonal weather patterns and operational forecasts already pricing in cooler or warmer dynamics for that date.
What factors could move this market?
Understanding the odds on this narrow temperature range requires examining the typical meteorological patterns of mid-May in New York City and the broader atmospheric setup expected for May 18, 2026. Historically, late spring in the Northeast features highly variable weather as the jet stream transitions northward and continental and oceanic air masses compete for dominance. A high of exactly 74-75°F is a relatively constrained prediction—it falls comfortably within the normal range for the season but requires a specific set of meteorological conditions to materialize. Weather systems moving through the Northeast in mid-May typically bring highs either well above 75°F (if warm air advection dominates from the Gulf of Mexico and high-pressure systems establish over the region) or well below 74°F (if a cold front passage or persistent low-pressure system brings cooler air, cloud cover, and precipitation). The 1% YES odds reflect strong market conviction that whatever atmospheric setup governs May 18 will deliver an outcome outside this narrow band. Traders pricing such low odds are implicitly forecasting either a notably cool day—driven by lingering arctic air incursions or a recent cold front (more common early-to-mid May depending on jet-stream positioning)—or a notably warm day (if high-pressure domes settle over the Northeast and clear skies allow solar heating). Recent seasonal climate trends and operational forecast models released closer to May 18 will anchor market repricing significantly. The historical analog is that days landing in the 74-75°F range do occur in May, but they represent a specific meteorological configuration requiring moderate winds, partial cloud cover, and balanced air mass conditions. The extremely low odds suggest market participants are not expecting that precise equilibrium on this particular date, instead favoring more dynamic conditions. Volume at $956 and liquidity at $6,103 indicate this is a minor weather market with pricing driven largely by algorithmic forecasting rather than deep fundamental debate among meteorologists.
What are traders watching for?
NOAA's official high temperature reading for New York City published by 11:59 PM ET on May 18, 2026
National Weather Service forecast high temperature for NYC released May 17–18 determines market repricing
Major cold front passage or high-pressure dome positioning relative to the Northeast on May 18
Actual observed high versus operational forecast models (GFS, NAM) determine if outcome falls within 74-75°F band
Cloud cover, wind speed, and humidity patterns on May 18 drive the daily temperature maximum
How does this market resolve?
Resolves YES if the National Weather Service official high temperature recorded for New York City on May 18, 2026 falls between 74-75°F inclusive. Resolves NO if the high is below 74°F or above 75°F.
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