Panama City sits in a tropical climate where temperatures typically exceed 25°C even during cooler months. The question asks whether the highest temperature on May 2, 2026, will reach only 22°C or below—a notably cool scenario for the region. With market odds at 0% for the YES side, traders are expressing near-total confidence that daytime highs will exceed this threshold. Panama's May weather is characterized by warm conditions and the onset of the rainy season, with daytime temperatures commonly in the 28–32°C range. A high of 22°C or below would require unusual atmospheric conditions, such as significant cloud cover, heavy rainfall, or an unexpected cold front—events that rarely occur during Panama's warm season. The current market price reflects the base rate expectation: Panama City in early May will experience typical tropical warmth, with traders assigning minimal probability to unexpectedly cool conditions. This daily temperature market closes at midnight UTC on May 2, resolving based on the recorded high temperature from the Panama City meteorological station.
Deep dive — what moves this market
Panama City's location at approximately 9 degrees north latitude means it experiences a tropical climate with minimal seasonal temperature variation compared to temperate regions. May marks a transitional month as the region enters the Caribbean rainy season, but this typically brings afternoon thunderstorms rather than sustained cooling. Historical May temperature data shows daytime highs consistently between 28–31°C, with nighttime lows around 22–24°C. A daily high of 22°C or below would represent roughly a 6–9 degree Celsius departure below the long-term May average, constituting a significant meteorological anomaly. For this market to resolve YES, Panama City would need extraordinary atmospheric conditions: sustained heavy cloud cover throughout daylight hours (reducing solar heating), a rare northerly wind shift or cold front penetrating this far south, or remnant energy from a tropical system in the Atlantic or Pacific capable of transporting cooler air masses into the region. While such events are meteorologically possible, they occur infrequently during Panama's warm season and carry very low climatological probability. The NO outcome—representing temperatures above 22°C—aligns with baseline seasonal expectations: typical tropical conditions featuring clear to partly cloudy skies, steady humidity near 75–85%, and steady daytime warming driven by strong solar radiation and equatorial proximity. The 0% YES probability currently assigned by traders reflects near-total conviction in the NO outcome. This assessment is grounded in seasonal climatology, historical temperature patterns, and the absence of any severe weather systems in extended forecast models capable of producing a 6–9 degree anomalous cooling. Recent May weather in Central America has tracked close to historical norms, with no evidence of systematic regional cooling trends. Resolution will depend on the recorded high temperature from Panama's official meteorological station on May 2, which serves as the authoritative data source for temperature markets in the region.
What traders watch for
Monitor meteorological forecasts released May 1–2 for cloud cover, wind shifts, and any unusual atmospheric patterns over Panama City.
Track real-time weather updates from Panama's National Meteorology Authority throughout May 2 for actual conditions and temperature readings.
Watch for any tropical systems, cold fronts, or Atlantic/Pacific weather systems capable of moving unusual air masses toward Central America.
Check the official daily temperature high recorded at Panama City's meteorological station, which serves as the market resolution source.
How does this market resolve?
The market resolves based on the official high temperature recorded in Panama City on May 2, 2026 (UTC midnight close). YES wins if the high is 22°C or below; NO wins if the high exceeds 22°C.
Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. On Polymarket Trade, every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. This page summarizes the market state for readers arriving from search; for live trading (place orders, see order book depth, execute a trade) open the full interactive page linked above.
