Panama City sits on the Caribbean coast of Central America, positioned at 8.9°N latitude where tropical conditions prevail year-round. May marks the transition from the dry season into the wet season, when typical high temperatures range from 32-34°C (90-93°F) with humidity levels often exceeding 80%. A high of exactly 27°C—approximately 81°F—would represent a significant departure from seasonal norms, roughly 5-7°C cooler than what Panama City typically experiences in mid-May. Achieving such a cool maximum would require either an unusual weather system (tropical disturbance, strong cloud cover, or rainfall throughout the day) or a broader regional atmospheric anomaly. The 4% YES odds reflect market participants' collective assessment that such an outcome is unlikely, though not impossible. The 2-day timeframe until market resolution means meteorological forecasts will become increasingly reliable as May 19 approaches. Low liquidity and modest trading volume suggest this niche daily weather prediction market attracts primarily weather enthusiasts and traders testing edge-case scenarios.
What factors could move this market?
Panama City sits on the Caribbean coast of Central America at approximately 8.9°N latitude, placing it firmly in the tropical climate zone. May represents the transitional month between the dry season (December-April) and the wet season (May-November), a period when atmospheric conditions shift toward increased moisture, afternoon convection, and frequent rainfall. Typical May highs in Panama City range between 32-34°C (90-93°F), with humidity levels often exceeding 80%. The lows typically fall to 24-25°C (75-77°F). A high of exactly 27°C would require a temperature swing of 5-7°C below seasonal norms, a significant deviation that would signal either an unusual weather pattern or an extreme event.
Several factors could theoretically push the market toward a YES outcome. A tropical disturbance or frontal system moving through Central America could bring sustained cloud cover, heavy rainfall, and stronger wind that keeps daytime heating suppressed. Historically, premature tropical systems have been documented as early as May, though major hurricanes are rare that far into the season. An unusual anticyclonic circulation could also bring cooler, drier air from higher latitudes—though this is less common in May when tropical warmth dominates.
Conversely, factors pushing toward NO are far more likely. May climatology strongly favors warm conditions: the sun is nearly overhead at Panama's latitude, day length is long (approximately 12.5 hours), and the ocean surrounding the isthmus remains warm at 27-28°C sea surface temperature, acting as a heat source. An entirely clear day with light winds would almost certainly see highs in the 33-35°C range, well above the 27°C threshold. Even days with afternoon thunderstorms typically see morning and early afternoon heating sufficient to reach 30°C or higher before clouds build. The rarity of historical temperature data showing Panama City highs near 27°C in May suggests this outcome is a statistical outlier.
The current 4% YES odds imply that traders collectively assess roughly 1-in-25 odds of this outcome, pricing in some tail-risk scenarios (early tropical system, rare cold anomaly) but largely expecting seasonal warmth to prevail. The low trading volume and liquidity suggest this is a niche market appealing primarily to weather prediction enthusiasts. Resolution clarity will emerge once meteorological agencies issue 3-5 day forecasts closer to May 19.
What are traders watching for?
Weather forecast update May 17-18: 3-7 day models from NOAA and ECMWF clarify if any tropical system approaches Panama City May 19
May 19 morning conditions: Cloud cover, atmospheric instability, and wind patterns determine whether afternoon heating sustains or suppresses temperatures
Official May 19 high temperature: Panama City airport meteorological station reading determines exact resolution at market close midnight UTC
Tropical cyclone watch: Any emerging tropical depression in the Caribbean basin could significantly alter Panama's weather forecast
How does this market resolve?
The market resolves based on the official high temperature recorded by Panama City's primary meteorological station on May 19, 2026. YES wins only if the reading is exactly 27°C.
Polymarket Trade is an independent third-party interface to the Polymarket CLOB prediction market exchange on Polygon — not affiliated with Polymarket, Inc. Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. Every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. Polymarket Trade is non-custodial — your funds never leave your wallet. Open the full interactive page linked above to place orders, see order book depth, and execute a trade.
