This prediction market resolves based on the official maximum temperature recorded in Paris on May 18, 2026, using data from meteorological authorities. Paris in mid-May typically experiences highs between 15 and 20 degrees Celsius; a maximum of exactly 10°C would be significantly below seasonal norms, suggesting an unusual weather system or unexpected cold snap. The market's current 0% odds reflect trader conviction that this precise temperature is extremely unlikely, whether because general May conditions in the city are warmer than 10°C, or because weather measurements land on exact integer values only by statistical chance. Understanding this market requires tracking the weather forecast trajectory into May 18 and recognizing that Paris weather during late spring rarely produces such low highs unless an atypical arctic air mass or jet stream anomaly arrives from the north. The zero price also implies traders consider the specificity of an exact 10°C reading (rather than, say, 'below 12°C' or 'single digits') to be a near-impossible constraint given the precision required.
What factors could move this market?
Paris weather in mid-May sits at a transitional point in the European spring season. Climatologically, the average high temperature in Paris during May is around 17 to 19 degrees Celsius, with overnight lows typically in the 10 to 12 degree range. A daily maximum temperature of exactly 10°C would be unusual and require either a strong cold air outbreak, an unexpected system bringing arctic air southward into northern France, or perhaps a weather system stalling over the region with cloud cover and precipitation suppressing daytime highs. Such events are genuinely rare in May but do occur periodically when upper-level troughs penetrate far south or when a displaced polar vortex draws frigid air masses across Europe. Historical weather records for Paris show that temperatures below 12°C as daily highs have been recorded in May, but less frequently than in early spring months like April; the city's location in northern France (49°N latitude) makes it more vulnerable to lingering cool air masses than southern Mediterranean regions would be. The traders pricing this market at precisely 0% odds may be making several well-founded implicit bets. First, they believe the seasonal trend toward warmer temperatures is strong enough that a 10°C high is simply too cold for mid-May Paris climatology. Second, they recognize that hitting an exact integer temperature is statistically unlikely when modern weather stations record measurements to decimal precision—a 10.1°C or 9.8°C reading would not settle the market as YES, only 10.0°C exactly would. Third, the low trading volume (only $559 in 24 hours) and relatively modest liquidity ($7,566) suggest this market may not attract sophisticated weather traders or institutional hedgers; the zero price could reflect default skepticism rather than deep analytical conviction. Historical analogs for Paris are instructive and cautionary. Cold snaps and unseasonal freezes do periodically occur in May, sometimes bringing daily highs into the high single digits or low double digits Celsius. However, the specificity required here—exactly 10°C, not 9°C or 11°C—raises the precision bar dramatically. Even if a major weather system delivered an unusually cold day on May 18, the high temperature would need to land precisely at that single threshold. Meteorologically, this represents a needle-in-a-haystack constraint unless the day features an unusual stable atmospheric pattern that caps temperatures at exactly that level. The zero odds pricing reflects both the low probability of a cold snap itself and the extreme improbability of precise numeric alignment, making this one of the least-likely weather outcomes any prediction market might list.
What are traders watching for?
Forecast high for May 18: monitor official météo-france extended outlook; any system predicting highs below 12°C warrants attention.
Upper atmospheric patterns: watch for jet stream dips or arctic air advection into northern France in the days before May 18.
Overnight lows: if May 18 lows are predicted in the 5–8°C range, daytime highs could approach single digits, making 10°C more plausible.
Cloud cover and precipitation: heavy rain or extended overcast conditions suppress daytime temperature rise, keeping highs lower than seasonal norms.
How does this market resolve?
This market resolves YES if the official maximum temperature recorded in Paris on May 18, 2026 equals exactly 10°C; it resolves NO if the high is any other value. Resolution is based on meteorological authority data (météo-france).
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