Seattle faces a cool threshold for May 2: will the high temperature stay at or below 53°F? The market is heavily priced toward NO (0% YES odds), indicating strong trader conviction in warmer conditions for the day. Early May in the Seattle metro typically sees highs in the mid-to-upper 50s°F, with considerable day-to-day variability driven by marine layer persistence and approaching weather systems from the Pacific. The 53°F threshold represents a relatively cool outcome—just a few degrees below typical early May conditions for the region. This daily recurring market resolves based on official National Weather Service data for Seattle-Tacoma, which serves as the authoritative temperature record for the area. The extreme odds skew strongly toward NO, suggesting conviction in warming, though Seattle's maritime climate can still produce unexpectedly cool days even in late spring. Temperature swings of 10-15°F between consecutive days are common as different air masses move through the Pacific Northwest. The market's confidence reflects either broad anticipation of typical May warming trends or specific forecast conviction about above-normal heating on this particular day.
Deep dive — what moves this market
Seattle's spring climate is defined by its position on the Pacific Northwest coast, where the marine environment moderates temperature swings year-round. Early May represents the transition from spring's cooler pattern toward summer warmth, yet marine-influenced cool air masses can still assert themselves. Historically, Seattle sees high temperatures below 55°F roughly 40% of days in early May, though this varies substantially based on weather system timing and upper-level atmospheric patterns. The Puget Sound basin sits in a geographic sweet spot where multiple competing air mass types can influence conditions: cool marine air from the Pacific, warmer continental air from inland, and cold air potentially funneled from the north through the Cascade passages. A 53°F high represents the cooler end of typical early May outcomes but remains meteorologically feasible. Factors supporting cooler temperatures include marine layer persistence (stratus clouds blocking solar heating), approaching low-pressure systems from the Gulf of Alaska, cool Puget Sound water temperatures still hovering near winter levels, and upper-level troughing that would favor southwesterly flow of cool Pacific air. Factors supporting warmer outcomes include high-pressure ridging that brings clear skies and maximum solar heating, warm-core upper-level circulation, and the general seasonal progression that shifts weather patterns warmer through May. Recent years have shown variable May temperature patterns, with some years trending cool early in the month and others jumping quickly into the 60s. The 0% market odds suggest negligible perceived probability of a 53°F or colder maximum, reflecting either confidence in seasonal warming signals or conviction that current forecast models point definitively toward above-threshold temperatures.
What traders watch for
NOAA forecast for Seattle May 2 high temperature and National Weather Service official observation timing release
Cloud cover and marine layer strength development during afternoon peak heating hours determining maximum temperature potential
Upper-level ridge and low-pressure system positioning determining air mass advection into Puget Sound region
Historical May 2 Seattle temperature patterns and the broader early May seasonal warming progression trend
How does this market resolve?
Resolves YES if Seattle's highest temperature on May 2, 2026 (per National Weather Service official data for Seattle-Tacoma) is 53°F or below; NO if higher. Final resolution occurs at market close on May 2 based on the recorded peak temperature for the day.
Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. On Polymarket Trade, every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. This page summarizes the market state for readers arriving from search; for live trading (place orders, see order book depth, execute a trade) open the full interactive page linked above.
