This market asks traders to predict whether Seattle's highest temperature will fall within the narrow 42-43°F range on May 19, 2026. Currently priced at 0% YES odds, the prediction market reflects strong trader consensus that this temperature will not occur. Seattle's typical May weather ranges from the low 50s to mid-60s Fahrenheit, making a high of just 42-43°F unseasonably cold for late spring in the Pacific Northwest. The market resolves at midnight UTC on May 19, 2026 based on official weather data. The extreme 0% price reflects trader conviction that temperatures will deviate substantially from this narrow band, whether trending warmer (more likely) or through an unexpected cold snap. Such precision weather markets appeal to traders calibrating forecast models or hedging edge-case scenarios. The volume of $603 in 24 hours suggests this is a niche prediction market primarily used by weather forecasting specialists, data scientists, or algorithmic traders testing market microstructure and resolution accuracy.
What factors could move this market?
Seattle's May 19 temperature prediction market represents an extreme test of weather forecasting precision and seasonal climatology. The Pacific Northwest city exhibits a well-documented climate pattern throughout spring and early summer, with mid-May marking a critical transition period from wetter spring weather to warmer, drier early-summer conditions. Historical weather data shows that May 19 highs in Seattle typically average around 60°F, with one standard deviation encompassing roughly 55-65°F based on a 30+ year climate record. For the highest temperature to reach only 42-43°F would represent a dramatic departure from long-term norms—essentially reverting to March or early April weather conditions in the heart of May. A YES resolution would require several atmospheric conditions to align simultaneously. A strong low-pressure system stalling offshore or over the Pacific Northwest could usher in cool maritime air, dense cloud cover, and steady precipitation that suppresses daytime heating. An early-season arctic intrusion is theoretically possible but statistically rare for May; such events are far more common in September through April. The factors overwhelmingly favoring NO outcomes are substantially more robust. By mid-May, solar insolation has increased significantly, day length approaches 15 hours, and the jet stream climatologically repositions further north, allowing warm Pacific air masses to penetrate the region. Even on rainy, overcast May days in Seattle—which do occur—typical highs still reach the 50s rather than the 42-43°F range. Historical precedent is illuminating: Seattle's coldest May 19 on record reached approximately 46°F in 1971, and comparable cold events are separated by several decades. The current 0% odds reflect both meteorological expertise among traders and the statistical improbability of such an outcome. This pricing structure suggests traders view the outcome probability as effectively negligible given seasonal dynamics and climate records.
What are traders watching for?
Official Seattle weather station highest temperature reading on May 19 must fall precisely between 42-43°F inclusive to resolve YES
Pacific Northwest high-pressure positioning and any low-pressure systems moving in that could suppress daytime highs May 15-19
Long-range forecast updates during mid-May showing any anomalous cold snaps or rare arctic air intrusions into the Pacific Northwest
Jet stream trajectory and potential southern dips that could bring anomalous May cold; historically rare events separated by decades
How does this market resolve?
The market resolves on May 19, 2026 at midnight UTC based on official Seattle weather data. YES wins if the highest temperature falls between 42-43°F inclusive; any reading above 43°F or below 42°F resolves NO.
Polymarket Trade is an independent third-party interface to the Polymarket CLOB prediction market exchange on Polygon — not affiliated with Polymarket, Inc. Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. Every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. Polymarket Trade is non-custodial — your funds never leave your wallet. Open the full interactive page linked above to place orders, see order book depth, and execute a trade.
