This market asks whether Seattle's high temperature on May 18, 2026, will fall in the specific range of 52-53°F. Currently trading at 2% YES odds, reflecting traders' conviction that this narrow range is unlikely. Seattle in mid-May typically experiences highs in the upper 50s to low 60s Fahrenheit. The 52-53°F range represents a cooler-than-typical outcome, consistent with an unseasonably cold spring pattern or a low-pressure system moving through the Pacific Northwest. With less than $2,200 in total liquidity and no 24-hour trading volume, this market remains largely illiquid, suggesting it appeals to specialized weather prediction traders. The resolution depends on the official National Weather Service high temperature reading for Seattle on May 18, making it a precision event tied to specific meteorological data. Since today is May 16, the outcome will be determined within 48 hours. Recent Pacific Northwest weather patterns have been mixed, with alternating warm and cool systems. The current low odds reflect either strong trader conviction that May 18 will be warmer or cooler than 52-53°F, or uncertainty about whether mid-May Seattle can reach such a narrow temperature band.
Deep dive — what moves this market
Seattle's spring weather patterns in 2026 have shown the typical volatility of the Pacific Northwest region. The Puget Sound area experiences its shoulder season weather in mid-May, transitioning between spring's unpredictable systems and summer's more stable patterns. A high of 52-53°F would be notably cool for May 18, falling significantly below the 30-year climatological average high of approximately 64°F for mid-May in Seattle. Such a reading would indicate either a strong cold front, an extended low-pressure system, or an unusual pattern of marine air pushing inland. To understand trader positioning at 2% YES, consider what conditions would need to occur. A deep low-pressure center positioned over or near the Pacific Northwest could deliver cooler-than-normal air and increased cloud cover, suppressing daytime heating. Alternatively, a marine air intrusion—common in Seattle—brings cooler, marine-influenced temperatures even in spring. Conversely, any typical high-pressure ridge, warm front passage, or solar heating on a clear day could easily push temperatures into the upper 50s or low 60s, outside the 52-53°F window. The narrow nature of the range itself explains much of the low odds; hitting a specific two-degree Fahrenheit band is inherently difficult in weather prediction. Historical May 18 temperatures in Seattle vary considerably. The city's climate database shows May 18 highs ranging from the low 50s during anomalously cool years to the high 60s during warmer springs. The precision required here exceeds typical weather conversations; most people discuss ranges of 10-15 degrees. A trader believing May 18 will see a high somewhere in the 48-58°F range might still lean NO on this market because the 52-53°F band is so narrow. The 2% price reflects a belief that May 18 will either be warmer (high-pressure pattern, sunshine, 58°F+) or cooler (strong cold front, persistent marine layer, <52°F). Very few weather outcomes cluster precisely in a two-degree window. With settlement just 48 hours away, forecast models from the National Weather Service and private forecasters should offer clarity by May 17 afternoon.
What traders watch for
National Weather Service Seattle high temperature reading on May 18 determines final outcome
Pacific Northwest high-pressure system or low-pressure trough positioning controls daytime heating
Marine air versus continental air mass dominance drives spring temperature variation in Puget Sound
Cloud cover and precipitation suppress afternoon highs; clear skies amplify solar warming
How does this market resolve?
This market resolves YES if the National Weather Service Seattle office records a high temperature between 52–53°F (inclusive) on May 18, 2026. Any high outside this range resolves as NO.
Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. On Polymarket Trade, every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. This page summarizes the market state for readers arriving from search; for live trading (place orders, see order book depth, execute a trade) open the full interactive page linked above.
