This market forecasts whether Seattle's high temperature on May 2, 2026 will land in the narrow 66-67°F band—a remarkably specific prediction. Currently trading at 1% YES odds, the market reflects trader skepticism about the precision required. Early May in Seattle typically sees temperatures in the low-to-mid 60s Fahrenheit, so while 66-67°F is within the normal spring range, hitting exactly this two-degree band is statistically difficult. The 1% price implies traders view the probability as extremely low, suggesting either they expect the day to be notably warmer or cooler than this band, or they doubt the feasibility of such precision forecasting. The current forecast and overnight conditions heading into May 2 will be crucial—morning lows, cloud cover, and incoming pressure systems all influence the daily maximum. This market exemplifies how prediction markets price near-term, highly granular outcomes that traditional weather forecasts frame more broadly. The low liquidity ($5,971) and modest volume ($1,158) suggest this is a niche trade for precision-focused participants.
Deep dive — what moves this market
Seattle's early May climate sits at a crucial seasonal inflection point where continental air masses retreating eastward across the Rockies compete with marine influences from the Pacific Ocean, creating high day-to-day variability. Climatologically, May 1-2 highs in Seattle average around 60-65°F with a standard deviation near 4-5°F, meaning a 66-67°F outcome falls approximately one standard deviation above the mean—unusual but not extreme. The 1% market price reflects a harsh collective assessment: traders perceive the probability of landing in this exact two-degree window as vanishingly small, either because they expect conditions well outside the band or they are skeptical of the feasibility of such precision forecasting in a daily weather market. Meteorologically, hitting a specific two-degree band requires exquisite alignment across multiple variables: cloud cover, wind speed and direction, atmospheric pressure gradient, and solar radiation all combine multiplicatively to determine the daily maximum temperature. A mostly clear to partly cloudy day with light winds from the northwest could easily push Seattle toward 68-70°F; sustained marine layer or incoming clouds might cap the high at 62-64°F. The tightness of the 66-67°F band leaves virtually no margin for error. Current atmospheric pattern analysis suggests a trough of low pressure is approaching the Pacific Northwest over the May 1-2 window, creating uncertainty about whether cooler, wetter conditions will dominate or whether a brief clear window might allow warming. The National Weather Service forecast will likely remain uncertain and subject to revision until the final models run late on May 1. Historically, precision weather markets—those trading two-degree or three-degree bands—have struggled to attract volume because professional meteorology traditionally frames forecasts in broader buckets (5-10°F ranges or categorical descriptors like "cool" or "mild"). The 1% odds price likely reflects the market's skepticism about both the underlying probability and the epistemological problem of forecasting at such granularity. Traders pricing YES are essentially wagering that Seattle will experience a very specific meteorological outcome: warm enough to exceed 65°F but cool enough to stay below 68°F, on a day when macroscale weather dynamics may push the outcome toward either temperature extreme. The modest $5,971 liquidity means even moderate-sized bets could swing the odds sharply, but the low 24-hour volume of $1,158 indicates few market participants believe this setup justifies capital commitment.
What traders watch for
National Weather Service forecast updates through May 1 evening; final model runs will sharply shift odds as meteorological certainty increases.
Overnight low on May 1 and morning surface temperatures; if May 1 evening lows exceed 55°F, a warmer May 2 becomes more likely.
Cloud cover and marine layer timing: if persistent clouds move in, Seattle's high will likely stay below 66°F; if clearing occurs, expect 68°F+.
Pressure gradient and wind direction on May 2 morning; northwest winds support warming, while onshore flow from the west caps the high.
How does this market resolve?
Market resolves on May 2, 2026 at 00:00 UTC based on the highest temperature recorded in Seattle (official NOAA/NWS data). YES wins if the high falls within 66-67°F (inclusive); NO wins otherwise.
Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. On Polymarket Trade, every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. This page summarizes the market state for readers arriving from search; for live trading (place orders, see order book depth, execute a trade) open the full interactive page linked above.
