Seoul's typical high temperature on May 2 ranges from 20-25°C, making the 11°C threshold an unusually pessimistic scenario for late spring in Korea. The 0% odds on YES reflect strong trader consensus that Seoul will experience normal-to-warm spring conditions on May 2. Historical data shows Seoul rarely drops below 15°C for its daily high in May, except during rare and severe cold snaps driven by Arctic air masses pushing south from Siberia. To hit 11°C or below would require an unexpected major weather system to move through East Asia, pushing tropical spring air away and bringing strong cold northwesterly flows. This market settles within approximately 24 hours, based on the Korea Meteorological Administration's official recorded high temperature for Seoul on May 2. The extreme confidence in NO, reflected in the 0% YES odds, suggests traders view a sub-11°C high as virtually impossible given the season, current forecast models, and Seoul's typical spring climate pattern.
Deep dive — what moves this market
Seoul in May typically experiences the transition into full spring, with warm, increasingly humid conditions as the region moves toward summer monsoon season. The May 2 date falls right in the heart of spring, when the city averages high temperatures between 20 and 25 degrees Celsius. A high of 11°C or below would represent a significant cold event—roughly 10-15 degrees below seasonal average—and would be noteworthy enough to appear in weather records and local news coverage. For Seoul to experience such a cold day in May would require an unusually strong cold air mass to surge southward from central Asia, overriding the warm Pacific air typically dominant at this time of year. This is possible but historically rare: such events occur roughly once every 5-10 years during late spring in Korea. The factors that could push the market toward YES are large-scale atmospheric patterns. A major trough of low pressure moving through mainland Asia, combined with strong northwesterly flows, could bring cold air into the region. An early-season frontal system or an unexpected blocking high over the Pacific could redirect normal wind patterns and suppress seasonal warming. Historical precedent shows Seoul has experienced cold Mays before, though not in recent years—the most recent significant May cold snap occurred in the early 2010s. Conversely, the factors pointing strongly toward NO are seasonal climatology and current forecast consensus. Late spring in the Northern Hemisphere's mid-latitudes typically features increasingly warm and humid air masses pushing northeastward. The Korea Meteorological Administration's forecast models, almost certainly showing normal-to-above-normal temperatures for May 2, are the likely reference point for traders. Climate data from recent decades shows a gradual warming trend in spring temperatures across East Asia, making extreme cold less likely than in past decades. The 0% YES odds are particularly revealing: traders assign virtually zero probability to this outcome, with no one willing to trade at any positive price for YES. This extreme confidence reflects near-universal agreement that Seoul's seasonal high will reach above 11°C and that current forecasts strongly support warm spring conditions. The market thus functions as a test of whether late spring weather follows Seoul's predictable seasonal pattern.
What traders watch for
Korea Meteorological Administration's official Seoul high temperature for May 2, 2026 determines resolution by midnight May 2
Unexpected low-pressure system or cold front moving through East Asia on May 1-2 could push temperatures below forecast
Current forecast models predict Seoul high of 22-26°C on May 2, well above the 11°C threshold
Historical cold snaps in Seoul occur roughly once per 5-10 years in May, making sub-12°C days rare events
How does this market resolve?
Market resolves based on the Korea Meteorological Administration's official recorded high temperature for Seoul on May 2, 2026, closing at midnight May 2 UTC. YES wins if high is 11°C or below; NO wins if high is 12°C or above.
Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. On Polymarket Trade, every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. This page summarizes the market state for readers arriving from search; for live trading (place orders, see order book depth, execute a trade) open the full interactive page linked above.
