This market resolves on whether Seoul's maximum temperature on May 2, 2026 reaches exactly 13°C. Current odds sit at 0%, indicating traders view this as an extremely unlikely outcome. The precision required—not "around 13°C" but precisely 13°C—makes this a highly specific prediction. Seoul's May weather typically ranges from 15-22°C, making 13°C cooler than seasonal norms but not unprecedented for early May. The market ends at midnight UTC on May 2, coinciding with the close of Seoul's trading day. With current liquidity at $6,716 and modest 24-hour volume, this represents a low-conviction, niche prediction market. The 0% odds suggest strong consensus that Seoul will either be warmer (most likely) or possibly cooler, but hitting exactly 13°C—within the standard measurement precision of weather services—is deemed virtually impossible by current traders. This type of exact-temperature market is part of the recurring daily weather category on Polymarket Trade.
Deep dive — what moves this market
This market exemplifies the specialized category of exact-temperature prediction markets that recur daily on Polymarket Trade. Seoul's meteorological profile in early May typically reflects a transition from spring to early summer, with highs ranging between 15°C and 22°C depending on weather systems. A maximum temperature of exactly 13°C would represent a notably cool day for Seoul at this time of year, roughly 5-10 degrees below the seasonal mean. Such a reading would typically occur only if a strong cold front moved in from Siberia or a major low-pressure system stalled over the Korean Peninsula, both relatively uncommon in May. The 0% odds currently assigned to this outcome reveal trader sentiment that conditions supporting such a cold day are not materializing. Weather forecasting services use standard rounding conventions—typically to the nearest 0.5°C or 1°C—when reporting daily highs. This means "exactly 13°C" requires not just cold weather, but temperatures that round to 13°C in the reporting system used. Seoul's official weather observations come from the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA), which provides daily maximum temperatures. The specificity of this market—hitting a single exact value rather than a range—is what drives the ultra-low pricing. Historical May weather in Seoul shows rare instances of maximum temperatures below 14°C, typically associated with retreating polar air or lingering spring weather patterns. Recent years have seen increasingly variable spring conditions across East Asia, yet 13°C remains an outlier scenario for Seoul in May. The market's low liquidity ($6,716) and minimal 24-hour trading volume ($1,636) suggest limited trader interest in this specific outcome, which is rational given both the low probability and the inherent difficulty in predicting weather at such granular precision.
What traders watch for
Cold front intensity: whether polar air from Siberia reaches the Korean Peninsula on May 1-2.
Official KMA measurement and rounding: how Seoul's meteorological station records peak temperature.
Weather forecast confidence: current models' agreement on Seoul's high temperature range May 2.
Seasonal pattern: frequency of sub-14°C days in May across Seoul historical records.
Pre-event alerts: KMA warnings for cold snaps or unusual weather systems affecting Korea.
How does this market resolve?
Market resolves on May 2, 2026 at 00:00 UTC based on the Korea Meteorological Administration's reported maximum temperature for Seoul. The outcome is YES if the high temperature is recorded as exactly 13°C; otherwise NO.
Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. On Polymarket Trade, every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. This page summarizes the market state for readers arriving from search; for live trading (place orders, see order book depth, execute a trade) open the full interactive page linked above.
