Will Seoul's highest temperature reach exactly 13°C on May 2? Market currently prices this at 0% odds, reflecting extreme precision required.
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This market resolves on whether Seoul's maximum temperature on May 2, 2026 reaches exactly 13°C. Current odds sit at 0%, indicating traders view this as an extremely unlikely outcome. The precision required—not "around 13°C" but precisely 13°C—makes this a highly specific prediction. Seoul's May weather typically ranges from 15-22°C, making 13°C cooler than seasonal norms but not unprecedented for early May. The market ends at midnight UTC on May 2, coinciding with the close of Seoul's trading day. With current liquidity at $6,716 and modest 24-hour volume, this represents a low-conviction, niche prediction market. The 0% odds suggest strong consensus that Seoul will either be warmer (most likely) or possibly cooler, but hitting exactly 13°C—within the standard measurement precision of weather services—is deemed virtually impossible by current traders. This type of exact-temperature market is part of the recurring daily weather category on Polymarket Trade.
This market exemplifies the specialized category of exact-temperature prediction markets that recur daily on Polymarket Trade. Seoul's meteorological profile in early May typically reflects a transition from spring to early summer, with highs ranging between 15°C and 22°C depending on weather systems. A maximum temperature of exactly 13°C would represent a notably cool day for Seoul at this time of year, roughly 5-10 degrees below the seasonal mean. Such a reading would typically occur only if a strong cold front moved in from Siberia or a major low-pressure system stalled over the Korean Peninsula, both relatively uncommon in May. The 0% odds currently assigned to this outcome reveal trader sentiment that conditions supporting such a cold day are not materializing. Weather forecasting services use standard rounding conventions—typically to the nearest 0.5°C or 1°C—when reporting daily highs. This means "exactly 13°C" requires not just cold weather, but temperatures that round to 13°C in the reporting system used. Seoul's official weather observations come from the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA), which provides daily maximum temperatures. The specificity of this market—hitting a single exact value rather than a range—is what drives the ultra-low pricing. Historical May weather in Seoul shows rare instances of maximum temperatures below 14°C, typically associated with retreating polar air or lingering spring weather patterns. Recent years have seen increasingly variable spring conditions across East Asia, yet 13°C remains an outlier scenario for Seoul in May. The market's low liquidity ($6,716) and minimal 24-hour trading volume ($1,636) suggest limited trader interest in this specific outcome, which is rational given both the low probability and the inherent difficulty in predicting weather at such granular precision.
Market resolves on May 2, 2026 at 00:00 UTC based on the Korea Meteorological Administration's reported maximum temperature for Seoul. The outcome is YES if the high temperature is recorded as exactly 13°C; otherwise NO.
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