Will Seoul's maximum temperature on May 18, 2026 be exactly 16°C? This daily temperature market resolves based on Seoul's official high for that date. Current traders have priced YES odds at 0%, indicating near-unanimous consensus that the high will deviate from 16°C. In mid-May, Seoul typically experiences spring warmth with highs ranging from 22–28°C, making 16°C considerably cooler than seasonal norms. The market's extreme skew toward NO reflects both historical seasonal patterns and current weather system positioning. A high of exactly 16°C would require unusual late-spring cold, possibly from a northerly air mass or cold front passage. Current meteorological setup suggests continued warming into mid-May, consistent with typical spring progression across Korea. The 0% odds line hints at strong trader conviction that Seoul will remain comfortably warmer. Traders are essentially betting that Seoul's thermometer will drift well above the 16°C threshold on May 18. The extreme odds divergence underscores how temperature prediction markets concentrate on plausible outcomes; exact-value bets demand precise atmospheric conditions.
What factors could move this market?
Seoul's climate in mid-May is dominated by warming springtime conditions as the Korean peninsula transitions from cool spring toward early summer. Historically, May 17–19 sees average highs near 24–26°C, with average lows around 15°C. A daily maximum of exactly 16°C would fall roughly 8–10°C below the seasonal mean, representing a highly anomalous cold day. For Seoul to experience such a temperature, the city would need unusual meteorological conditions: either a strong cold air intrusion from high-latitude systems or a particularly deep upper-level low-pressure system coupled with cloud cover and limited solar heating. Typical May weather patterns over Korea are driven by warm, moist southeasterly flow from the Pacific and Indian oceans, progressively warming the peninsula as solar angle increases. Reversal of this pattern would require a major circulation shift—often linked to sudden changes in the Arctic Oscillation or sustained cool phases in the North Atlantic Oscillation, allowing polar air to penetrate deeply southward. Precedent for cold May days in Seoul exists but is rare: truly anomalous cold events (>8°C below normal) occur only a few times per decade and are typically associated with organized cold-air advection behind vigorous frontal systems. The current 2026 spring has trended toward above-normal warmth across the Northern Hemisphere, consistent with long-term climate patterns that have suppressed traditional cold-air outbreaks. Latest ensemble weather forecasts for May 18 suggest stable, warm-biased conditions with very low probability of significant cooling. Market traders have priced 0% odds on YES, reflecting both the statistical rarity of exactly 16°C in May (roughly 1–2% historical frequency for the exact value) and strong model consensus toward normal-to-warm conditions. The exactness requirement is critical: this market demands Seoul's high hit precisely 16°C, not 15°C or 17°C. Traders buying NO are betting confidently that the high will fall in the 20–28°C range, entirely missing the 16°C target. With only $8,730 in liquidity, the current price could shift rapidly if new weather signals emerge—a surprise cold-air forecast from major models would likely shift odds toward YES. However, as of now, trader consensus is overwhelming: May 18 in Seoul will be a normal-to-warm spring day.
What are traders watching for?
May 17 evening weather updates: Monitor major model consensus for May 18 Seoul forecasts; unexpected cold signals could shift market.
Upper-level cold systems: Watch for polar jet streams or frontal systems affecting Korea in the week leading up to May 18.
May climatology: Seoul's typical May 17–19 highs are 24–26°C; 16°C would be 8–10°C below normal, requiring unusual cold.
Current 2026 spring warmth: Northern Hemisphere spring has trended above-normal; broad warming bias makes May 18 cold anomaly unlikely.
How does this market resolve?
Market resolves YES if Seoul's official daily high temperature on May 18, 2026 is exactly 16°C; otherwise resolves NO. Resolution uses Seoul's primary weather station official record.
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