Shenzhen is a subtropical city in southern China where May temperatures typically climb into the upper-20s Celsius range. With a high of 23°C or below, the market is asking whether May 19, 2026 will see an unusually cool day—below the seasonal norm. The current YES odds at 0% reflect near-total market conviction that Shenzhen's high will exceed 23°C on that date. This extreme pricing suggests traders expect typical or warm-for-season conditions. The market resolves at midnight UTC on May 19 based on the highest temperature recorded in Shenzhen throughout that day. With only two days until resolution, this is a short-duration weather forecast. The low liquidity at $1,464 indicates modest trader interest, typical for narrow daily-temperature markets. May in Shenzhen typically sees highs around 27-29°C, so 23°C would require either a weather system bringing cooler air or a significant deviation from normal patterns. The 0% odds pricing suggests minimal belief in such a deviation.
What factors could move this market?
Shenzhen's climate in May is characterized by transitioning from spring to summer, positioning the city at an important seasonal inflection point. Historically, average high temperatures in mid-May hover around 27-28°C, with normal daily highs rarely dipping below 25°C. A high of 23°C or lower would represent a significant departure from typical conditions for this period, occurring roughly once per decade or less frequently. The city experiences seasonal weather patterns heavily influenced by the East Asian monsoon system, where May marks the approach of warmer months ahead. For the YES outcome (23°C or below), traders would need to see a weather system bring cooler air into the region. This could occur if a cold front pushes southward from northern China, or if unusual cloud cover and moisture patterns suppress daytime heating. Such events are not impossible in May, but they run counter to the seasonal warming trend and require active meteorological intervention. Historical records show that days with highs at or below 23°C do occur in Shenzhen, but they are relatively rare during mid-May. The probability depends on whether any significant weather disturbances are forecast for the region. For the NO outcome (above 23°C), the base case is simply typical seasonal weather. Most days in late spring see highs comfortably above 25°C, and increasingly above 27°C as summer approaches. The normal progression of the season almost guarantees this outcome unless an unusual weather pattern intervenes. Traders have priced this at near-certainty, with 0% implied probability for YES. Recent May weather patterns in Shenzhen have shown consistency with long-term climatological norms. The city rarely experiences unusually cool days in mid-May. Water temperatures in the South China Sea are warming, which tends to amplify heating over land. Any tropical system would more likely bring warm, humid conditions. The extreme skew in odds pricing (0% YES) reflects high confidence that seasonal factors will dominate. If a weather forecast showed cooler conditions, the YES odds would likely rise sharply. The current pricing implies traders are confident in their near-term weather assessment and see a cold anomaly as extremely unlikely over two days.
What are traders watching for?
Shenzhen's actual recorded high temperature on May 19, 2026 — the sole resolution criterion.
Any forecast cold front or atypical weather system approaching the region before resolution.
Historical May climate patterns showing 23°C+ is normal; cooler conditions would be a significant anomaly.
Meteorological conditions and pressure systems across southern China over the next 48 hours.
How does this market resolve?
The market resolves on May 19, 2026 at midnight UTC based on the official high temperature recorded in Shenzhen. YES if 23°C or below; NO if above 23°C.
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