Shenzhen, a major city in Guangdong province in southern China, experiences subtropical climate patterns that shift notably through the spring season. May marks the critical transition toward warmer summer months, with historical highs typically ranging from 28°C to 32°C during this period. This prediction market asks whether the single highest temperature recorded on May 2, 2026 will land on exactly 24°C—a specific and precise threshold. The current prediction market shows 0% odds for YES, suggesting traders expect either considerably cooler conditions closer to 20–23°C or warmer temperatures significantly above 24°C on this day. Weather prediction markets resolve based on official meteorological data from Shenzhen's weather stations, making outcomes independently verifiable and transparent. The 0% odds reflect high conviction among participants that 24°C falls substantially outside the likely temperature range for May 2's daily high. This market type demonstrates how precise weather forecasting markets can be—not just predicting warm or cool general conditions, but pinpointing exact degree thresholds. Traders monitor seasonal climate trends, weather system movements, and atmospheric pressure patterns to assess probability of specific temperature targets.
Deep dive — what moves this market
Shenzhen's climate is shaped by its strategic position on the South China coast, where tropical maritime moisture patterns interact with seasonal wind shifts and monsoonal influences. During May, the city enters a transitional period between spring's variable conditions and early summer's sustained heat. Historically, May averages reveal daytime highs typically ranging from 28°C to 31°C, though day-to-day variation exists. The specific market target of 24°C represents a threshold approximately 4–7°C cooler than typical May highs in Shenzhen, making it an unusual but not impossible scenario. Achieving this outcome would require either a significant cold-air mass passage from the north, an unusually deep atmospheric trough, or extensive cloud cover and precipitation that suppresses afternoon solar heating. Several meteorological factors could theoretically push this market outcome toward YES (higher probability of 24°C being the daily high). A cold frontal system advancing through southern China—unusual for May but historically documented—could bring cooler air masses into the region. Persistent cloud cover and rainfall from a stalled weather system could substantially reduce solar heating and limit afternoon temperature rise. Oceanic influences from the South China Sea, particularly if coupled with strong onshore flow patterns, might suppress the diurnal temperature maximum. Conversely, numerous factors appear more likely to keep temperatures well above 24°C. Seasonal solar intensity strengthens significantly as May progresses toward June. Typical subtropical high-pressure systems commonly establish themselves over the region during this period. Shenzhen's pronounced urban heat island effect typically raises city temperatures 2–3°C above surrounding rural areas, a consistent factor year-round. The current 0% YES odds reflect the collective assessment of prediction market traders that May 2 will follow established seasonal patterns rather than deviate substantially. Historical climatological records suggest that 24°C highs in Shenzhen occur during May only 5–10% of the time, making them statistically rare events. The modest market liquidity ($5,798) and light trading volume ($548 in 24 hours) indicate this market attracts specialized weather-prediction traders rather than casual market participants. The extreme confidence displayed in the NO side—reflected in 0% YES odds—suggests participant conviction that either significantly cooler conditions (requiring unusual synoptic weather systems) or, more probably, standard seasonal warmth will prevail.
What traders watch for
Official Shenzhen meteorological service reports May 2 daily maximum temperature; market resolves based on verified weather station data.
Monitor weather forecasts from Chinese meteorological authorities and international models (GFS, ECMWF) as May 2 approaches; cold fronts would be primary YES catalyst.
Track May 2 morning atmospheric conditions: cloud cover, wind patterns, humidity; sustained sunshine and high-pressure systems favor temperatures well above 24°C.
Compare Shenzhen May 2 predicted high against historical May averages (28–31°C typical); 24°C represents a significant seasonal outlier.
How does this market resolve?
Market resolves on May 3, 2026 based on official Shenzhen meteorological authority data for May 2's daily high temperature. Resolution: YES if high equals exactly 24°C; NO if any other value.
Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. On Polymarket Trade, every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. This page summarizes the market state for readers arriving from search; for live trading (place orders, see order book depth, execute a trade) open the full interactive page linked above.
