Tel Aviv faces a weather prediction market heavily skewed toward heat on May 17. With YES odds at 0%—meaning traders price essentially zero probability of a cool day—the market consensus is clear: tomorrow's high will exceed 25°C with near-certainty. In mid-May, Tel Aviv typically experiences late spring warmth, with average highs around 26–28°C, and daytime temperatures rarely drop to 25°C or lower during this season. The extreme pricing reflects both historical seasonal patterns and expected weather dynamics. A 0% YES quote signals that traders view cooler scenarios—where the high stays at or below 25°C—as negligible risks, not worth pricing at any meaningful probability. This level of conviction leaves virtually no room for unexpected cooling, unusual cloud cover, or atmospheric systems that might moderate temperatures. The current spread reveals strong trader confidence in warm conditions, reflecting a combination of seasonal fundamentals and likely short-term forecasts. Whether real-world weather could still surprise with cooler conditions remains the unpriced edge case the market has essentially dismissed.
What factors could move this market?
Tel Aviv's Mediterranean climate in mid-May is characterized by a transition from spring to early summer, with temperatures gradually climbing toward peak heat. Climatologically, May is a warming month in the eastern Mediterranean, where high-pressure systems dominating the region typically produce settled, warm conditions. Average highs for Tel Aviv in mid-May range from 26–28°C, with lows around 18–20°C. Days with highs capped at 25°C or below are statistically uncommon during this period unless unusual weather systems—such as a strong low-pressure system bringing cloudier, cooler air from the north—temporarily disrupt the typical pattern. The 0% YES odds reflect traders' assessment that no such cooling system is forecast for May 17, and seasonal momentum is solidly toward warm conditions. Several factors would push the market toward cooler outcomes: an unexpected northerly push of cooler air from higher latitudes, significantly increased cloud cover reducing solar heating, an eastward-tracking low-pressure system bringing moisture and reduced insolation, or atmospheric disruptions unusual for mid-May. Historically, such cooling events are rare but remain meteorologically possible in shoulder seasons. Conversely, factors supporting warmer outcomes include the established subtropical high-pressure system typical of late spring, persistent clear skies maximizing solar heating, the gradual seasonal warm-up characteristic of May in the eastern Mediterranean, and the absence of organized cooling systems in current weather forecasts. Recent weeks likely featured steady warming as May progressed, setting market expectations. The 0% YES quote is particularly revealing: it suggests traders have assessed available weather forecasts and climatological information, concluding that cooling scenarios are improbable. This extreme conviction indicates high confidence in near-term forecasts showing no cooling system, or an implicit judgment that even if cooler air arrives, its effect would be insufficient to suppress highs below the threshold. What this market prices is a normal May 17 in Tel Aviv—settled, warm, with the high exceeding 25°C. Any cooler outcome would require atypical conditions or significant forecast surprises. The market's extreme pricing reflects strong trader consensus about expected warm conditions.
What are traders watching for?
Meteorological station high-temperature reading at end of May 17: official measurement above 25°C results in NO resolution.
Any unexpected cooling system, northerly wind shift, or Mediterranean low-pressure system arrival within the next 24 hours affecting the region.
Cloud cover and solar heating patterns: clear skies typical for May maximize solar heating toward warmer conditions and higher daily highs.
Seasonal May warming trajectory: temperatures in Tel Aviv typically climb day-over-day through the month as late spring heat builds.
How does this market resolve?
The market resolves based on the highest temperature recorded in Tel Aviv on May 17, 2026, measured by official meteorological stations. YES wins if the high is 25°C or below; NO wins if it exceeds 25°C.
Polymarket Trade is an independent third-party interface to the Polymarket CLOB prediction market exchange on Polygon — not affiliated with Polymarket, Inc. Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. Every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. Polymarket Trade is non-custodial — your funds never leave your wallet. Open the full interactive page linked above to place orders, see order book depth, and execute a trade.
