This market asks whether Tokyo's daily high temperature will reach exactly 20°C on May 2, 2026, representing an extremely precise weather prediction challenge. Currently trading at 0% YES, the market reflects the inherent difficulty of forecasting a single specific temperature down to the exact degree. Tokyo in early May typically experiences daily highs in the 22-25°C range (72-77°F), making a 20°C high notably cool relative to seasonal expectations for the period. The market closes at midnight UTC on May 2, with resolution determined by Japan Meteorological Agency official daily high temperature readings from their primary Tokyo monitoring station. Early May in Tokyo marks the transition from spring into early summer, characterized by increasing sunshine, lengthening daylight hours, and warming air masses pushing northward from the Pacific Ocean. The 0% odds suggest traders believe the probability of hitting this exact temperature is negligible—not theoretically impossible, but requiring a very particular and unusual weather pattern such as a late-season cold front or persistent heavy cloud cover blocking solar heating throughout the day.
Deep dive — what moves this market
Tokyo's climate in early May represents a transitional period between spring and early summer, with typical daily high temperatures ranging from 22 to 26 degrees Celsius. The city experiences increasing solar radiation and lengthening days, combined with occasional intrusions of warmer, more humid air from the Pacific. A daily high of exactly 20°C would fall below this normal range, requiring active temperature suppression throughout the day. Such suppression could result from persistent cloud cover, an upper-level low-pressure system, or remnant cold fronts pushing cool air southward from higher latitudes. Historically, Tokyo experiences some days below 21°C in early May, but hitting 20°C exactly on any given date remains statistically uncommon.
The 0% odds reflect trader skepticism that such conditions will occur on May 2 specifically. Yet weather remains inherently unpredictable. Strong cut-off low pressure systems or substantial cloud cover could push highs into the 18-20°C range. Conversely, high-pressure systems and clear skies typically drive May temperatures well above 25°C, representing baseline market expectations. Recent climate trends show warming spring temperatures across Japan, further reducing the likelihood of cool outlier days during this season.
The market also reflects broader challenges in precision weather forecasting. Numerical weather models excel at predicting temperature ranges but struggle with exact-degree predictions more than 24 hours in advance. The boundary between 19°C and 21°C lies within typical forecast uncertainty, making this target band statistically narrow. Traders appear to believe the probability should reflect near-zero odds for hitting 20°C precisely.
Resolution depends on official readings from the Japan Meteorological Agency, which maintains Tokyo's primary weather station. The market settles based on the station's reported daily high—the single highest reading during the 24-hour period ending at midnight UTC on May 2. This specificity creates a sharp boundary: a reading of 20.0°C resolves YES; any other temperature resolves NO. Market pricing at 0% suggests traders view these precise conditions as effectively impossible given early May's seasonal warmth and Tokyo's urban heat island effect.
What traders watch for
Japan Meteorological Agency's official high temperature reading for Tokyo on May 2, 2026 determines resolution.
Upper-level low-pressure systems or late-season cold fronts affecting Tokyo weather during May 1-2 period.
Cloud cover patterns and atmospheric conditions that suppress solar heating on May 2 daytime.
Seasonal temperature trajectory and historical May data showing typical Tokyo highs versus forecast trends.
How does this market resolve?
Market resolves based on Japan Meteorological Agency's official daily high temperature for Tokyo on May 2, 2026. YES wins if the reading is exactly 20°C; any other temperature resolves NO.
Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. On Polymarket Trade, every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. This page summarizes the market state for readers arriving from search; for live trading (place orders, see order book depth, execute a trade) open the full interactive page linked above.
