This market asks whether the highest temperature in Warsaw on May 18, 2026 will reach exactly 10 degrees Celsius—no rounding, no approximation. The current YES odds of zero percent reflect the exceptional difficulty of predicting such a precise outcome. Weather stations record temperatures to the nearest decimal, but market conditions rarely align to produce an exact whole-degree high. May in Warsaw typically sees highs between 15°C and 20°C as the season transitions toward summer, making 10°C unusually cool for the date. The narrow resolution window—just 48 hours away—leaves limited time for prediction adjustments based on updated forecasts. Traders currently assign zero probability to this outcome, a reflection of how improbable it is for a major city's daily high to hit this specific value rather than 9°C, 11°C, or anywhere in between. The market serves as a test of whether collective pricing can predict extreme precision in a domain where typical forecasts operate in ranges rather than single points. Current volume of $612 in 24 hours suggests limited interest in this particular outcome.
What factors could move this market?
Weather prediction at the precision level required by this market—an exact whole-degree value—exists at the boundary of meteorological forecasting. While weather services can forecast temperature ranges with reasonable skill 7–10 days in advance, predicting an exact integer requires accuracy to within 0.5°C on a single day, which is substantially harder. Warsaw's May 18, 2026 high temperature will reflect the integrated effect of atmospheric conditions: cloud cover, wind speed, surface heating from solar radiation, and urban heat absorption. Even a single overcast hour in late afternoon or a shift in wind direction can alter the peak temperature by 1–2°C. The historical temperature record for Warsaw on May 18 varies year to year; consulting past decades shows highs between 13°C and 24°C on this date, with a 30-year mean around 17°C. A high of exactly 10°C would place this date at the cold extreme of Warsaw's May weather, requiring conditions similar to a spring cold snap. Such events occur, but with low frequency—perhaps once every 20–30 years on a specific date in a specific city. Traders in this market have priced the YES outcome at 0%, meaning they collectively assign a probability below 0.5% (the minimum non-zero market value). This reflects rational expectation: given $6,876 in liquidity and 48 hours to resolution, attempting to trade on a sub-0.5% probability event is economically inefficient. The market also reveals how forecast uncertainty compounds. A weather service's 48-hour forecast for Warsaw's high might specify 12–16°C with 70% confidence, but this confidence band still encompasses a range. Narrowing that range to exactly 10°C requires rejecting 95% of the possible outcomes that the ensemble forecast implies are plausible. The zero-percent odds reflect both the inherent difficulty of extreme precision and the rational constraints of capital allocation in a small-liquidity market.
What are traders watching for?
Official Warsaw weather station's recorded high temperature on May 18 determines resolution at midnight UTC.
Updated forecast models 24 hours before resolution will refine expectations for the daily high.
Historical May 18 highs in Warsaw range 13–24°C, with exactly 10°C near the cold extreme.
Cloud cover and wind patterns in late afternoon directly affect whether high reaches exactly 10°C.
Weather station rounding and measurement precision rules determine if the official reading is exactly 10.0°C.
How does this market resolve?
Resolves YES if the official Warsaw meteorological station records a high of exactly 10°C on May 18, 2026; any other temperature resolves NO. Market closes at midnight UTC.
Polymarket Trade is an independent third-party interface to the Polymarket CLOB prediction market exchange on Polygon — not affiliated with Polymarket, Inc. Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. Every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. Polymarket Trade is non-custodial — your funds never leave your wallet. Open the full interactive page linked above to place orders, see order book depth, and execute a trade.
