This market asks whether Warsaw's highest temperature will be exactly 13°C on May 18, 2026. The 0% YES odds indicate traders consider this precise outcome extremely unlikely. Warsaw's May weather typically ranges from 10–22°C, making any single-degree outcome a statistical long shot. The market resolves based on official Polish meteorological data from the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW). Current pricing reflects the statistical improbability of hitting that exact degree on a specific day. Spring weather in Central Europe is notoriously variable, with unpredictable swings between cool Atlantic depressions and warm Mediterranean air masses. The narrow focus on exactly 13°C rather than a broader temperature range makes this a contrarian trading opportunity only if unexpected weather pattern shifts alter expectations significantly. Given that typical May temperatures in Warsaw cluster around 15–18°C, the market's pricing suggests traders view a 13°C outcome as well outside the likely forecast cone. The market's thin liquidity at $9,110 and modest 24-hour volume of $563 suggest limited trader interest in this hyper-specific daily temperature outcome.
What factors could move this market?
Warsaw's climate in mid-May sits in a transitional zone between spring and early summer. Historical data from the past decade shows May highs ranging from 10°C on cold snaps to 22–24°C during warm spells, with an average high around 16–17°C. The specific prediction of exactly 13°C falls slightly below May's seasonal mean, making it a cooler-than-average outcome but not unprecedented within May's broader range. European meteorological services track Central European weather patterns closely, and May 18 forecasts rely on the latest weather models from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) or Poland's national meteorological authority, IMGW.
For the YES outcome to resolve, Warsaw would need to experience weather conditions producing an official high of precisely 13°C. This extreme precision constraint—no margin for rounding or measurement variation—is the core friction point. Factors that could theoretically push toward 13°C include a lingering cool Atlantic depression, persistent cloud cover limiting daytime heating, or unseasonably strong northwesterly wind patterns. Conversely, strengthening high-pressure systems and clearer skies would drive temperatures upward into the 16–20°C range more typical of mid-May, away from the target.
The 0% odds reflect traders' collective assessment that this outcome is nearly impossible. Not because 13°C is climatologically impossible in Warsaw—it absolutely can occur—but because betting on an exact degree on a specific day faces crushing statistical headwinds. Historical daily records show that hitting any single degree exactly is statistically rare; predicting that specific degree when it's cooler than the seasonal average compounds the improbability. Recent May temperatures in Warsaw have consistently clustered around 15–18°C highs, suggesting recent climate drift away from the 13°C target.
The market's thin liquidity ($9,110) and modest 24-hour volume ($563) underscore this outcome's niche status: primarily attracting weather researchers testing prediction market mechanics or contrarian traders hunting microscopic probability miscalculations. The 0% YES pricing is an explicit market consensus that no trader is willing to express meaningful conviction that May 18 will be exactly 13°C. Reversing this market would demand either a dramatic, unexpected weather pattern shift or new information about resolution criteria that currently all traders heavily discount.
What are traders watching for?
Official IMGW recorded high for Warsaw, May 18 at close (23:59 UTC) determines market outcome.
Final 48-hour ECMWF and Polish national weather models provide strongest predictive signal before May 18 resolution.
Regional high temperatures across Warsaw, Kraków, and Gdańsk on May 18 confirm regional weather pattern.
Morning cloud cover and wind direction on May 18 determine whether daytime heating can reach 13°C.
How does this market resolve?
The market settles on May 18, 2026 based on the official daily maximum temperature recorded by Poland's meteorological authority (IMGW) for Warsaw. It resolves YES only if the recorded high is exactly 13°C; all other temperatures resolve NO.
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