This market tracks whether Warsaw's highest temperature on May 2, 2026 will be exactly 20°C—a threshold near the typical spring maximum for central Poland. Current YES odds at 0% indicate strong trader conviction that conditions will deviate from this specific mark, either warmer or cooler. Early May in Warsaw averages highs between 16–21°C depending on weather patterns; 20°C sits in the middle of this range but represents a narrow outcome. The lack of liquidity betting on YES suggests traders assess the probability of hitting this exact temperature as extremely low. Meteorological data from official Polish weather stations will resolve this market after May 2 ends, once final temperature readings are confirmed and verified.
Deep dive — what moves this market
Warsaw's climate in early May reflects the transition between spring and early summer, with high temperatures typically ranging from 16 to 21 degrees Celsius depending on the dominance of Atlantic weather systems versus stable continental air masses. A 20-degree high represents the mid-to-upper bound of this range and is neither exceptionally warm nor cool for the season. The prediction market's 0% YES odds suggest traders have high confidence that May 2 will produce either a cooler day driven by lingering cool air masses or rain-bearing low-pressure systems moving from the Atlantic, or a warmer day as high-pressure systems establish and southern European warmth reaches central Poland. Historical weather data for Warsaw shows that 20°C highs are achievable but not dominant in early May; many days reach 17–19°C when cloud cover and wind prevent stronger warming, while others climb to 21–23°C during high-pressure ridges. Recent European weather patterns in late April 2026 will heavily influence May 2 conditions. If a warm anticyclone is building, traders may expect temperatures significantly above 20°C. If Atlantic systems are queued to deliver rainfall and cooler air, the market would still avoid YES territory. The extreme lack of YES liquidity suggests traders not only disagree with a 20°C outcome but see virtually zero probability—a rare degree of certainty in weather markets. This could indicate either confident forecasts pointing to notably different conditions, or that the 20°C resolution threshold is interpreted as an outlier prediction.
What traders watch for
Market closes May 2 at midnight UTC; official Polish meteorological service data determines final highest temperature reading
European high-pressure and low-pressure systems on May 1–2 directly influence whether conditions warm significantly above or cool below 20°C
Recent April 2026 weather trends shape early May temperature trajectory; warm anticyclones or cool Atlantic incursions shift outcomes
IMGW-PIB weather station provides authoritative resolution data with no approximations or forecasts; actual measured values apply
How does this market resolve?
Resolves YES if Warsaw's highest temperature on May 2, 2026 is 20°C (or within the specified tolerance); resolves NO if the actual high differs from that mark. Official Polish meteorological data (IMGW-PIB) determines the outcome.
Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. On Polymarket Trade, every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. This page summarizes the market state for readers arriving from search; for live trading (place orders, see order book depth, execute a trade) open the full interactive page linked above.
