Wellington's daily temperature market for May 17 asks whether the city's highest temperature will reach exactly 10°C — a very specific prediction in a seasonal forecast. The current YES odds at 0% reflect trader conviction that the precise hit is nearly impossible, even though 10°C sits squarely in Wellington's late autumn range. This recurring daily market closes at midnight UTC on May 17, 2026, using official New Zealand weather service readings for resolution. The zero odds don't mean the temperature can't fall somewhere in the 8–12°C range; they indicate the exact 10°C threshold is considered unlikely enough that traders won't take the long position even at heavily discounted odds. May brings cooling weather to Wellington as it heads deeper into winter, with typical highs around 10–13°C depending on prevailing wind patterns and frontal systems. Weather prediction at single-degree precision remains inherently uncertain, especially when targeting a specific daily high rather than an average or a broader range.
What factors could move this market?
Wellington's weather in May reflects the transition from autumn into early winter across New Zealand's South Island. The city sits on the southwestern coast, exposed to prevailing westerly winds and southern ocean systems that bring rapid temperature swings. Historical May records show Wellington's daily highs typically range from 10 to 13 degrees Celsius, with morning lows often dropping to 6–8°C. The exact temperature of 10°C is therefore not anomalous — it falls within the normal seasonal envelope — but it remains a narrow target for weather prediction. Several factors could push the market toward YES. A slow-moving cold front from the south could park over Wellington, suppressing the daily high. Clear, calm conditions at the start of May 17 would allow solar radiation to warm the surface, but a sudden wind shift or cloud cover in the afternoon could arrest that warming and keep the peak at exactly 10°C. Overnight frost followed by partial cloud and a weak southwesterly could deliver precisely that outcome. Conversely, multiple factors argue for NO. A warm north or northeast wind could push the high to 12–14°C, overshooting the target. An active weather system bringing rain could lower highs into the 7–9°C range. The chaotic nature of weather systems makes single-degree predictions inherently unreliable; standard forecast uncertainty at this lead time is typically 2–3 degrees. Recent May temperatures in Wellington have shown considerable day-to-day variability, ranging from 7°C to 16°C across different dates, which speaks to the difficulty of pinpointing an exact value. The zero odds on YES reflect rational trader skepticism: with only a narrow band of meteorological conditions producing exactly 10°C, and forecast error margins wider than the target itself, taking a YES position even at deep discounts poses unfavorable risk-reward. The market essentially prices the outcome as requiring an improbable alignment of multiple atmospheric variables.
What are traders watching for?
Official NZ MetService reading of Wellington's highest temperature on May 17, 2026 — the sole resolution criteria.
Forecast updates in the 24 hours before May 17 showing model convergence or divergence on the exact high.
Prevailing wind direction will critically affect the high: northeasterlies push temperatures above 11°C; southwesterlies cap them at 8–10°C.
Cloud cover timing and intensity during afternoon peak solar hours — full sun drives higher peaks; cloud caps warming.
How does this market resolve?
The market resolves based on the official New Zealand MetService highest temperature reading for Wellington on May 17, 2026. Exactly 10.0°C qualifies as YES; any other value resolves NO.
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