Wellington's weather on May 2 is the subject of this precision prediction market, where traders assess whether the city's daily high temperature will settle at exactly 11°C. Currently trading at 0% implied odds, the market signals strong trader consensus that an exact 11°C high is unlikely—reflected in May's autumn weather patterns across New Zealand's capital. Temperature precision markets require exact matching; a high of 10.9°C or 11.1°C resolves NO. The current 0% reading indicates traders expect the May 2 high to fall either above or below the 11°C threshold. Wellington's autumn highs typically range 13–16°C, making 11°C a cooler-than-average scenario. The market's zero odds have persisted, suggesting stable trader conviction that this precise temperature is improbable given seasonal climatology and the challenge of predicting exact readings multiple days in advance.
Deep dive — what moves this market
Wellington's geography and microclimate create distinct weather patterns that inform this daily-temperature market. Situated at the southwestern tip of the North Island, Wellington experiences temperate oceanic conditions driven by prevailing westerly winds, the Pacific Ocean's influence, and complex topography shaped by surrounding hills and the Cook Strait. The city's autumn (May is late autumn in the Southern Hemisphere) typically sees highs between 13–16°C, with nocturnal lows around 8–10°C. An exact 11°C high would represent below-average autumn conditions—cool but not extreme, and notably lower than Wellington's typical May pattern. Factors that could push the May 2 high toward 11°C include a southerly wind shift bringing cooler polar maritime air, a low-pressure system tracking east of New Zealand, or a cold front passage from the south. Conversely, a northeasterly or westerly flow maintaining warmer air masses would keep the high above 11°C. Recent May weather in Wellington has shown variability; May 2025 recorded highs ranging 12–17°C across the month, demonstrating the range of possibilities and the relative rarity of single-digit highs in autumn. The 0% market odds reflect trader skepticism about the precise 11°C threshold. This exactness requirement is the core of daily-temperature markets—they don't ask 'Will it be cool?' but rather 'Will it be exactly this temperature?' The resolution mechanism relies on official NIWA (National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research) temperature recordings from Wellington Airport or the city's designated meteorological station. Historical precedent suggests that hitting exact integer-degree highs happens but remains probabilistically less likely than ranges around those integers, and 11°C sits in the lower tail of May's distribution. The current spread of 0% YES / 100% NO indicates traders have priced in significant skepticism rooted in climatological baselines. For the YES side to gain traction, weather models would need to converge on a narrow 11°C scenario, something forecasts rarely pinpoint five days ahead with sufficient confidence. The market's persistence at 0% suggests no material new information is shifting trader conviction—weather forecasts released in the days before May 2 would likely trigger repricing if they showed elevated probability of cooler conditions.
What traders watch for
Official NIWA recorded high temperature from Wellington Airport on May 2, 2026 at midnight UTC
Weather forecast updates from MetService or international models showing potential southerly wind shift in approaching days
Historical May temperature data showing how often Wellington records exact integer-degree highs near 11°C range
Real-time meteorological observations and forecast model updates from May 1-2 that could significantly shift trader conviction
How does this market resolve?
Market resolves based on Wellington's recorded high temperature on May 2, 2026 from official NIWA data. YES if exactly 11°C; NO otherwise.
Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. On Polymarket Trade, every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. This page summarizes the market state for readers arriving from search; for live trading (place orders, see order book depth, execute a trade) open the full interactive page linked above.
