Wuhan in early May typically experiences spring weather with temperatures ranging from 15-25°C, making specific daily highs difficult to predict with precision. The current 0% odds reflect trader consensus that Wuhan's maximum temperature on May 2 will deviate significantly from exactly 16°C. This prediction market is pricing in the extreme specificity required—not just a cool day in Wuhan, but one where the high is precisely 16 degrees Celsius, no more, no less. Real-world temperatures fluctuate based on cloud cover, wind patterns, humidity, and atmospheric pressure systems across the region. Even when meteorologists forecast a narrow temperature range, actual daily highs typically vary within 2-4 degree windows due to microclimatic factors and atmospheric dynamics. The May 2 expiry occurs at midnight UTC, capturing Wuhan's local calendar day, with resolution determined by official government weather reports. The minimal liquidity ($5.3K) and relatively low 24-hour trading volume ($1.05K) suggest this is a specialized niche market for weather trading enthusiasts. Traders holding NO positions are effectively betting the high will be either below or above 16°C—a more probabilistically favorable outcome than hitting that exact value.
Deep dive — what moves this market
Wuhan, located in central China at approximately 30.6°N latitude, experiences a humid subtropical climate with pronounced seasonal transitions between cool winters and hot summers. Early May falls during late spring, a period of rapid temperature increase as solar intensity builds toward summer. Historically, Wuhan's May daily high temperatures average around 26-28°C with significant day-to-day variability depending on prevailing atmospheric patterns, moisture transport from the South China Sea, and frontal systems from the north. The China Meteorological Administration reports temperatures in whole-degree Celsius, typically measured at standardized weather stations using consistent national methodology. The specificity of this market—requiring the maximum temperature to be exactly 16°C—creates an extraordinarily narrow outcome window. In meteorological reporting conventions, precision matters: a reading of 16.4°C rounds to 16°C, while 16.5°C rounds to 17°C. This measurement ambiguity, combined with the inherent variability of daily weather systems driven by pressure, wind, and moisture dynamics, makes exact-degree predictions exceptionally challenging. For Wuhan to experience a high of exactly 16°C on May 2 would require meteorological conditions unusual for late spring: extended cloud cover blocking solar radiation, frontal rainfall systems, or a significant cold air incursion from northern regions. Such scenarios are meteorologically possible given May's transitional character, but they require specific atmospheric conditions that are statistically improbable. Recent May climate data shows Wuhan's daily highs rarely fall below 18°C; a 16°C high would represent a distinctly cool anomaly, roughly 10 degrees below the monthly average. The current 0% odds reflect trader assessment that this outcome is effectively impossible based on available short-range forecasts and historical climate patterns. The market's binary YES/NO structure at 0/100 reveals extreme conviction among participants. Traders holding NO positions benefit from any outcome except exactly 16°C—a probabilistically favorable asymmetric position. This market illustrates the profound difficulty of exact-value weather predictions: even when temperature ranges can be forecast with reasonable confidence, hitting a single discrete value becomes exponentially less probable due to continuous distribution of actual atmospheric temperatures.
What traders watch for
China Meteorological Administration's official May 2 high temperature measurement for Wuhan will determine resolution at 00:00 UTC.
Cold frontal systems or atmospheric pressure drops affecting Wuhan between May 1 and May 2 could suppress temperatures significantly.
Short-range weather forecast updates released in the 24 hours before expiry may shift trader conviction based on pattern changes.
Temperature measurement rounding methodology and official reporting conventions determine how exact 16°C readings are validated for resolution.
How does this market resolve?
Resolves based on China Meteorological Administration's official May 2, 2026 high temperature report for Wuhan. YES wins if exactly 16°C; NO wins for any other value.
Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. On Polymarket Trade, every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. This page summarizes the market state for readers arriving from search; for live trading (place orders, see order book depth, execute a trade) open the full interactive page linked above.
