Wuhan, located in Hubei province in central China, experiences a subtropical climate with warm, humid conditions during late spring and early summer. May 17 falls within a seasonal transition period when daily temperatures typically climb rapidly. A maximum temperature of 24°C represents a relatively cool threshold for Wuhan at this time of year, when average highs often exceed 28°C. The 0% YES odds indicate that prediction market traders are confident the peak temperature on May 17 will exceed 24°C, reflecting seasonal expectations and recent warming trends. This near-zero probability reflects strong trader conviction about warmer conditions. The market prices the "cool day" scenario as extremely unlikely, suggesting current models and seasonal patterns support above-threshold temperatures. Resolution will depend on official meteorological data from Wuhan, typically reported by the China Meteorological Administration. The clear, objective nature of temperature data makes this market straightforwardly resolvable once the calendar date arrives.
What factors could move this market?
Wuhan's climate during mid-May sits at a critical juncture between spring and summer weather patterns. The city lies in the Yangtze River valley, a region historically prone to rapid warming as solar radiation intensity increases toward the summer solstice. By May 17, the typical climatological maximum temperature in Wuhan ranges from 26°C to 29°C depending on specific atmospheric conditions, making the 24°C threshold notably conservative for this calendar date. Over the past decade, Wuhan's May temperatures have shown variability, but sustained cool days (maxima at or below 24°C) are relatively infrequent without significant synoptic weather disruptions. Several atmospheric factors could theoretically push the actual temperature toward the YES outcome (staying at or below 24°C). A strong cold front or unusual monsoon deflection could introduce cooler maritime air into central China, potentially suppressing surface temperatures. Persistent cloud cover or unexpected rainfall could reflect solar radiation and reduce daytime warming. Conversely, factors supporting NO (the current market consensus) are more aligned with seasonal climatology: high-pressure systems favoring clear skies, strong solar insolation typical of mid-May, and the absence of cold-air intrusions remain the expected pattern. Recent meteorological context for 2026 is relevant. Late April and early May have already shown above-normal temperatures across central China, suggesting warmer-than-average upper-air patterns and possible early summer monsoon influences. If this warming regime persists, the likelihood of Wuhan's peak staying below 24°C diminishes further. The 0% probability in the prediction market reflects this alignment: traders are pricing in near-certainty that a typical late-spring day in Wuhan will exceed the threshold. Historically, May cool spells in Wuhan are possible but require specific catalysts—typically a northern jet stream trough pushing cold air southward, a pattern more common in April or early May. As the month progresses and solar angles steepen, such intrusions become rarer and weaker. The current market structure (0% YES) effectively embeds the assumption that no significant disruptive weather pattern will occur on May 17. For traders tracking this market, the core uncertainty hinges on whether unexpected weather systems materialize or if seasonal conditions persist. Daily weather model forecasts available a week before May 17 will provide updated probabilities. The market's consensus reflects high confidence in a warm day, likely driven by seasonal climatology and ongoing warm-air persistence through early May.
What are traders watching for?
Official meteorological observation May 17 determines market resolution using China Meteorological Administration daily maximum temperature data.
Late April through May 16 thermal pattern: if above-normal temperatures persist, a warm May 17 becomes highly probable.
Cold front or monsoon system approach May 15-17: any significant weather disruption could increase YES likelihood substantially.
7-day forecast model updates May 10-15 will refine temperature predictions; monitor ensemble consensus from GFS and ECMWF.
How does this market resolve?
The market resolves on May 17, 2026, based on the highest temperature recorded in Wuhan for that day according to official meteorological data. YES wins if the maximum temperature is 24°C or below; NO wins if it exceeds 24°C.
Polymarket Trade is an independent third-party interface to the Polymarket CLOB prediction market exchange on Polygon — not affiliated with Polymarket, Inc. Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. Every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. Polymarket Trade is non-custodial — your funds never leave your wallet. Open the full interactive page linked above to place orders, see order book depth, and execute a trade.
