The Iranian regime's long-term stability remains one of the most debated geopolitical questions. This market examines whether Iran's current leadership structure will remain in power through May 31, 2026. Iran faces persistent internal pressures including economic sanctions, demographic shifts favoring younger populations, and periodic civil unrest. Externally, regional tensions, nuclear negotiations, and evolving U.S. policy under different administrations add uncertainty. The current YES odds of 3% reflect market consensus that regime collapse within six months is highly unlikely. Historical precedent shows regime transitions typically unfold over years, not months, making abrupt near-term shifts rare. This price implies strong confidence in regime continuity despite ongoing institutional challenges. Active trading volume and liquidity suggest price discovery around geopolitical risk premiums. Traders monitoring policy announcements, civil unrest patterns, and sanctions developments as potential catalyst events. The May 31 deadline provides a defined resolution window for assessing Iran's political stability through mid-2026.