Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?
About this market
Resolution rules are set by Polymarket. This market resolves based on whether the stated event occurs by the specified date. Visit Polymarket for full resolution criteria.
AI Analysis
Market strongly expects NO (93% NO). Large trader flow is active.
No price history available
Quick CalculatorEstimate profit & loss before trading
If Yes wins+$1328.57 (+1329%)
If No wins-$100.00
Break-even probability7.0%
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
SignalsMomentum: Flat24h Price Change: +0.5%Volume trend: risingLiquidity: BLarge Trader Flow: ActivePrice forming
- Price moved +0.5pp in the last 24h
- Momentum: Flat
- Volume trend: rising
- Price move: Price moved up to 7.4% from 6.4% baseline — 15% shift
- Large trader flow detected
MARKET SENTIMENTBearish
BearishNeutralBullish
24h Volume$138K
Liquidity$132K
Current Probability7%
Resolves in1mo
Low VolatilityVol: 6.3% → 3.4%
53 days until resolution. Price movements are small and decreasing.
Trending but far out — price may revert
AI Brief
Iranian regime collapse by May 31 carries only 7% probability despite heightened US tensions, reflecting market skepticism of imminent overthrow. Trump's policy trajectory is the key variable, with only 8 weeks for transformative change.
Anomalies
WarningPricez=3.2