Kharg Island is Iran's primary crude oil export terminal and one of the world's largest petroleum shipping facilities. Located in the Persian Gulf off Iran's southwestern coast, it represents critical infrastructure that has been a focal point of regional security concerns. The facility processes and exports hundreds of thousands of barrels daily and is essential to Iran's economy. The market question asks whether the terminal will experience a direct military strike by April 30, 2026. Current market odds price YES at just 6%, reflecting trader assessment that despite regional geopolitical tensions between Iran and Israel, and broader Middle East dynamics, the probability of a direct military strike on the facility remains relatively low in the near term. This low price implies markets are pricing in either continued diplomatic channels, military restraint, or barriers to successful targeting of the facility. The resolution will depend on credible international reports documenting a direct military impact on Kharg Island terminal infrastructure by the market end date. The relatively short timeframe of approximately two weeks concentrates near-term risk assessments toward immediate tactical developments.