Hong Kong in mid-May is typically in late spring, with daytime highs in the upper 20s to low 30s Celsius and nighttime lows in the low to mid-20s. The market question asks whether the lowest temperature recorded on May 17 will be exactly 24°C—a highly specific outcome that requires precise matching to the decimal. Current trader odds at 0% reflect strong conviction that the low will either fall below 24°C or remain above it, with such precise matching being extremely unlikely given typical daily weather variability. Hong Kong's tropical monsoon climate produces variable nighttime temperatures depending on cloud cover, wind patterns, and air circulation from the Pearl River Delta region. The market becomes resolvable immediately after midnight UTC on May 18, when the official daily minimum temperature for May 17 is recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory. Traders assessing this market should monitor updated 24-hour forecasts and local weather station readings—any shift in the expected range could alter the probability from its current 0% baseline, though the extreme specificity of matching exactly 24°C makes such outcomes inherently rare in granular daily temperature markets.
What factors could move this market?
Hong Kong's daily low temperature is a physically measurable meteorological outcome recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory, the city's official weather authority. On May 17, 2026, this low will fall somewhere within a predictable range based on seasonal patterns, but the exact value remains uncertain until the day unfolds. The city's unique geography—a densely developed harbor-front metropolis surrounded by the South China Sea and the mountainous New Territories—creates microclimates and localized temperature patterns that compound forecasting difficulty at precise decimal resolution. Mid-May sits at the cusp of Hong Kong's pre-summer season, transitioning from the more stable spring conditions into the onset of the Southwest Monsoon season. Typical overnight lows in this period range from 22°C to 27°C, depending on cloud cover, wind direction, and the strength of the Southeast Asian high-pressure systems. A low of exactly 24°C sits near the middle of this typical range, making it theoretically plausible, yet the specificity of matching that exact degree creates an extremely narrow outcome window. Factors supporting a YES resolution would require favorable atmospheric conditions: clear skies allowing radiative cooling after sunset, moderate wind speeds preventing wind-driven mixing of warmer air, and optimal positioning within the monsoon circulation. A high-pressure ridge positioned over South China could deliver these conditions, with cloud-free nights typically producing lower minima due to unobstructed radiative heat loss from the surface. Conversely, factors supporting a NO resolution are more numerous: persistent cloud cover acts as an insulating blanket through radiative trapping, keeping nighttime lows warmer or above 24°C. Alternatively, strong radiative cooling under extreme clear conditions could drive the low below 24°C. Wind patterns matter significantly; stronger winds increase vertical mixing and prevent the extreme surface cooling needed to hit the precise 24°C target. Any passing tropical weather system—a weak depression or trough—could alter moisture content, wind patterns, or pressure fields in unpredictable ways. Given that 24°C represents a single point within a multi-degree range, misses vastly outnumber exact matches. The current 0% odds reflect the mathematical reality that traders assess the probability of this exact outcome as virtually negligible, consistent with the inherent difficulty of precision betting on single-degree temperature thresholds.
What are traders watching for?
Cloud cover on May 17: clear skies lower the minimum via unobstructed radiative cooling; persistent clouds keep lows warmer.
Wind speed and direction: strong winds prevent extreme cooling; calm conditions allow radiative heat loss to shift the low downward.
Passing weather systems: any trough, depression, or moisture surge could shift expected low by 1–2 degrees either direction.
Upper-air pressure patterns: high-pressure ridge position over South China drives clear, calm conditions favoring radiative cooling.
Water temperature baseline: warm sea surface temperatures around Hong Kong provide heat; cooler nights remain limited by ocean warmth.
How does this market resolve?
The market resolves on May 18, 2026, based on the official daily minimum temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory for May 17. A YES resolution requires the low to be exactly 24°C; any other value resolves as NO.
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