Miami's May 2 overnight low temperature is a precisely measurable meteorological event resolved by NOAA data. The market currently prices YES at 0%, indicating traders are highly confident Miami's low will fall below 90°F on May 2. This is late spring, when Miami transitions toward summer heat patterns, but overnight lows typically remain in the low-to-mid-80s Fahrenheit due to standard diurnal temperature variation and overnight radiative cooling. A 90°F overnight low is exceptionally warm, requiring sustained heat and high humidity with minimal temperature drop after sunset. The 0% price suggests the market views such conditions as highly improbable for this specific date. Historical Miami May data shows overnight lows rarely reach 90°F; such extremes occur during exceptional heat waves or when tropical systems are nearby. The market has likely settled at this extreme price because standard May weather patterns and current forecast models do not support temperatures staying at or above 90°F overnight. Resolution will occur at midnight UTC May 2, when NOAA publishes the official low for Miami-Dade County.
Deep dive — what moves this market
Miami's subtropical climate places the city in a persistent heat and humidity zone, particularly during the spring-to-summer transition. May is historically a month of accelerating temperature increases: average highs climb toward 88-90°F, while overnight lows typically remain in the mid-to-upper-80s Fahrenheit, approximately 74-78°F based on NOAA 30-year normals, though recent warming trends have incrementally elevated these baselines. An overnight low of 90°F or higher represents a rare meteorological extreme—a state where nighttime temperatures remain substantially elevated while the normal diurnal cooling process that ordinarily brings relief after sunset is substantially suppressed. For Miami to register such an extreme on May 2, several preconditions would need to align simultaneously: sustained tropical air mass advection with minimal atmospheric circulation to dissipate accumulated heat, proximity to a tropical depression or early-season hurricane, or an exceptional continental heat dome suppressing radiative cooling pathways. These scenarios are meteorologically feasible but historically uncommon in May, which precedes peak hurricane season (August–October) and typically lacks the large-scale atmospheric patterns supporting persistent extreme heat. Examining Miami's climate record, documented 90°F+ overnight lows occur almost exclusively during tropical cyclone activity (when warm oceanic air masses dominate) or extreme multi-week heat waves. Neither condition appears in current forecasts for May 2. Weather models from May 1 show standard late-spring thermal patterns expected: daytime highs in the mid-to-upper-80s with normal overnight drops of 10-15°F via radiative cooling. Factors supporting NO (below 90°F): standard diurnal temperature variation, clear-night radiation loss, and absence of tropical systems or heat domes. Factors supporting YES: sustained tropical advection, nearby hurricane circulation, or unforeseen intense heat—none of which appear probable. The market's 0% price reflects traders' collective assessment that May 2 will follow routine late-spring meteorology. The complete absence of YES-side trading volume ($0 traded) is a powerful consensus signal that this outcome is improbable relative to both climatological norms and current meteorological guidance. Resolution is determined by NOAA's official Miami-Dade County overnight low, which is objective and unambiguous.
What traders watch for
NOAA publishes official Miami-Dade County overnight low at midnight UTC May 2; this data resolves the market.
Current forecast models show expected overnight lows in 75-82°F range; monitor updates approaching May 2 close.
Tropical system or heat dome proximity would be primary YES catalyst; neither appears forecast for May 2.
Climate records show 90°F overnight lows require sustained tropical activity or extreme heat; absent in current guidance.
How does this market resolve?
Market resolves based on NOAA's official overnight low temperature for Miami-Dade County on May 2, 2026. YES wins if low reaches 90°F or higher; NO wins if low falls below 90°F.
Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. On Polymarket Trade, every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. This page summarizes the market state for readers arriving from search; for live trading (place orders, see order book depth, execute a trade) open the full interactive page linked above.
