The Federal Reserve's federal funds rate target is the overnight lending rate between banks. The Fed sets this as a range with an upper bound that significantly influences broader economic conditions, borrowing costs, and inflation expectations. As of early 2026, market participants are pricing in a 4% probability that the upper bound will be exactly 3.0% at year-end 2026. This low probability reflects current market expectations about the Fed's policy trajectory, which has involved rate cuts and evolving expectations around the central bank's approach to inflation and economic growth through 2026. The Federal Reserve typically adjusts its target range gradually in response to inflation data, employment reports, and broader macroeconomic conditions. Recent trading activity has shown volatility linked to economic data releases, Federal Reserve communications, and shifts in market expectations. The resolution is straightforward: the market will settle on or shortly after December 9, 2026, based on the Fed's officially announced upper bound of the target federal funds rate. YES resolves if the upper bound is exactly 3.0%; NO resolves if it is any other rate.