Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.0% at the end of 2026?

Traders price just 4% odds the Fed's upper bound reaches 3.0% by December 2026, implying conviction that rate cuts either won't occur or won't extend to that level. Inflation data and labor reports through the year drive sentiment; April and June FOMC decisions are near-term catalysts. Market 3's 3.0% target sits materially lower than Market 1's 4.25%, revealing market uncertainty about cut depth versus the baseline expectation of sustained elevated rates.