This market tracks whether the Federal Reserve will set the upper bound of its target federal funds rate at 4.0% by December 31, 2026. The Federal Reserve adjusts the federal funds rate through policy decisions at regularly scheduled meetings throughout the year, with the target always expressed as a range with both upper and lower bounds. Currently trading at 6% YES odds, this prediction market reflects relatively low probability assigned by traders to a 4.0% upper bound by year-end, suggesting consensus expectations for either unchanged rates from current levels or rate increases exceeding 4.0%. The federal funds rate serves as the interest rate at which commercial banks lend reserve balances to each other overnight and acts as the primary benchmark influencing broader lending rates across the entire economy. Market resolution depends on the Fed's official rate target announcement at the December 2026 policy meeting. This market has established liquidity of $20,956 and maintains active 24-hour trading volume of $365, indicating substantial ongoing interest from traders seeking to gain exposure to Federal Reserve policy predictions.