Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026?

This market bets whether the Fed's upper bound target rate stays at 4.0% through end-2026, with only 8% conviction it will. The 93% NO probability reflects market expectations for either deeper rate cuts (below 4.0%) if inflation cools or maintained higher rates (above 4.0%) if inflation remains sticky, likely leaning toward continued cuts given recent economic softness. Key catalysts are the eight FOMC meetings and monthly CPI/jobs reports throughout 2026 that will drive Fed expectations.