The US government has significantly increased transparency regarding unidentified aerial phenomena (UAP) in recent years, with declassified Pentagon reports and congressional hearings becoming regular occurrences. This market asks whether an official US government confirmation of extraterrestrial life will occur before the end of 2026. The question is resolvable through documented government statements from recognized authorities such as NASA, the Pentagon, or Congress. Currently trading at 18% YES odds, the market reflects broad trader skepticism about formal alien confirmation within this timeframe, despite growing institutional interest in UAP investigation. While government agencies have committed to disclosing unexplained phenomena, a definitive confirmation of intelligent extraterrestrial existence represents a significantly higher threshold than acknowledging anomalous sightings. Odds have remained relatively stable, indicating consensus that such a major announcement is unlikely in the near term. The distinction between investigating and confirming extraterrestrial life creates natural skepticism about the timeline for official confirmation.