US Measles by May 31 sits at <1% market-implied probability above 2000 cases, with $5.4K 24h volume. Trade live on Polymarket via Polymarket Trade.
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The US measles outbreak prediction market gauges whether confirmed measles cases will reach 2000+ by May 31, 2026. The current market pricing of <1% on YES suggests traders expect measles incidence to remain controlled through spring 2026. The US typically maintains robust measles surveillance through CDC immunization programs, and historical baseline rates have stayed well below 2000 cases annually in recent years, even during documented minor outbreaks. The market's low YES probability reflects trader confidence in sustained vaccination coverage and effective outbreak containment measures across states. Measles remains federally reportable across all US states, making case counts verifiable through official CDC epidemiological data released on a weekly basis. The pricing trend has remained stable throughout the market's lifetime, suggesting consistent trader expectations that endemic transmission will not escalate significantly by the deadline. Resolution will be determined by CDC official case counts as reported by May 31.
Measles surveillance in the US operates under a robust federal reporting system overseen by the CDC. Any suspected or confirmed measles case must be reported to state health departments, which then report to the CDC within a standardized timeframe using uniform case definitions. The US has not experienced measles case counts above 2000 in a single calendar year since the early 1980s, when vaccination rates were substantially lower and outbreaks were more frequent. The threshold of 2000 cases would represent a dramatic return to endemic levels unseen in four decades and would signal a fundamental breakdown in public health vaccination infrastructure. The current market pricing at <1% probability reflects the baseline expectation that routine vaccination programs and outbreak response infrastructure will successfully contain any clusters that emerge. Factors that could theoretically push the market toward YES include a sustained and geographically distributed decline in measles vaccination coverage below critical herd-immunity thresholds (typically 95%), introduction of a measles-containing virus variant that partially evades vaccine-induced immunity, significant breakdown in case reporting or investigation capacity during an operational crisis, or multiple simultaneous importations from countries with endemic measles followed by chains of domestic transmission. However, none of these scenarios are currently evident in epidemiological data. Most US states maintain routine vaccination coverage well above 90%, and the vaccine's efficacy remains near 99% after two doses, providing durable population-level protection. Conversely, factors supporting the NO side include the routine and mature nature of US measles surveillance, the historically high vaccination coverage across demographic groups, and the successful track record of local and state health departments in rapidly containing measles clusters. Historical context: the last major US measles outbreak occurred in 2019 with 1,282 cases across multiple states, an elevated year compared to typical recent years (usually 10-150 cases annually). Reaching 2000 cases would require either a resurgence at 1.5x that 2019 peak or multi-year accumulation beyond the May 31 deadline. The current spread pricing suggests asymmetric risk: the YES side is priced near-zero because traders collectively assess the risk of 2000+ cases as vanishingly small given current public health infrastructure.
Market resolves YES if CDC reports at least 2000 confirmed measles cases in the US by May 31, 2026. Resolution determined by official CDC epidemiological data published through the deadline.
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