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The Strait of Hormuz handles approximately 21–25 million barrels of oil per day, roughly one-fifth of global petroleum trade, with typical daily vessel transits ranging from 20–25 ships. The question asks whether average daily transits will fall between 0–10 on May 31, 2026—a level representing roughly 60–75% reduction from normal baseline operations. At 76% YES odds, markets are pricing meaningful probability of a significant disruption event: geopolitical escalation, shipping restrictions, sanctions enforcement, or blockade. The current price implies traders assess substantial tail risk of Hormuz access limitations by month-end, though most still expect some level of normalized traffic flow. The high YES probability reflects elevated sensitivity to Iran-US tensions and regional shipping vulnerabilities.
What factors could move this market?
The Strait of Hormuz, connecting the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman, is the world's most critical maritime chokepoint. At its narrowest point, only 21 nautical miles separate Iranian and Omani territorial waters, with designated shipping lanes just 2 nautical miles wide in each direction. The waterway carries roughly 21% of global traded petroleum, making disruption to daily transits a material event for energy markets globally. Historically, Hormuz has experienced transit reductions during periods of elevated US-Iran tension, shipping sanctions, and regional military escalation. The 0–10 daily threshold implies a 70–80% collapse from normal operations—a level typically seen only during extended blockades, major military intervention, or unprecedented sanctions regimes targeting shipping insurance and vessel underwriting. Factors driving YES outcomes include: escalated US sanctions on Iranian oil exports and Hormuz shipping insurance, Iranian government closure threats (historically invoked during tension cycles), attacks by regional actors on commercial vessels, US naval operations interdicting traffic, or declared exclusion zones. Conversely, NO outcomes require sustained normal operations: absence of new sanctions, no Iranian closure attempts, de-escalation of regional conflicts, and maintained commercial shipping viability. The 76% YES odds likely reflect current elevated geopolitical risk assessment tied to US-Iran relations, recent regional proxy incidents, and the pattern of Hormuz vulnerability during escalation phases. Market participants appear to be pricing substantial tail risk into the May 31 date, though pricing still embeds expectation of partial operational continuity.
What are traders watching for?
US announces new sanctions on Iranian oil exports or shipping insurance related to Hormuz transits
Iran formally declares closure threat or conducts naval exercises blocking the transit corridor
Attack on commercial vessel prompts major shipping companies to pause or reroute through alternatives
Official transit count data released showing month-end daily average near or crossing 10-vessel threshold
Major geopolitical escalation or de-escalation announcement shifts regional stability perception significantly
How does this market resolve?
Market resolves YES if official Hormuz daily transit count data for May 31, 2026 shows an average of 0–10 vessels passing through; resolves NO if the count exceeds 10. Resolution typically references maritime tracking services or official government shipping documentation.
Polymarket Trade is an independent third-party interface to the Polymarket CLOB prediction market exchange on Polygon — not affiliated with Polymarket, Inc. Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. Every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. Polymarket Trade is non-custodial — your funds never leave your wallet. Open the full interactive page linked above to place orders, see order book depth, and execute a trade.
