This market asks whether a rare seismic event will occur: a full seven-day period with zero earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher anywhere on Earth. The current YES odds of 1% reflect historical earthquake frequency data from the USGS, which tracks roughly 150 to 160 magnitude 6.5+ earthquakes annually worldwide. That works out to approximately 3 earthquakes of this magnitude per week on average. The question is fully resolvable through real-time monitoring by the U.S. Geological Survey Earthquake Hazards Program, which maintains a comprehensive global seismic network with detection stations worldwide and publishes magnitude data with minimal delay. The extremely low YES odds suggest traders view a zero-earthquake week as a statistical outlier event. The Pacific Ring of Fire, which accounts for roughly 90% of global seismic activity and hosts the majority of subduction zone interactions, makes such quiet periods particularly rare. Active seismic regions in Southeast Asia, the Mediterranean, New Zealand, and the East African Rift further reduce the likelihood of a seven-day lull. A 1% YES odds point indicates high confidence that at least one magnitude 6.5+ event will occur during May 11–17, reflecting the base rate of seismic activity.
What factors could move this market?
Earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher represent a significant seismic threshold, capable of causing moderate to severe damage in populated areas and generating measurable tsunami waves. The USGS Earthquake Hazards Program records approximately 150 to 160 such earthquakes globally each year, a rate that has remained relatively consistent across decades. This translates to roughly 3 earthquakes per week on average, though temporal clustering means some weeks experience multiple events while others remain quiet. The Pacific Ring of Fire, stretching from New Zealand through Southeast Asia, Japan, and the west coasts of North and South America, accounts for approximately 90% of global seismic activity due to active subduction zones and plate boundaries. The 1% YES odds reflect trader skepticism about achieving a full seven-day window without even one event of this magnitude.
Recent global seismic patterns have not shown unusual quieting. Major subduction zones—including Cascadia in the Pacific Northwest USA, the Japan Trench, Kuril-Kamchatka, and the Peru-Chile Trench—remain mechanically active and capable of producing magnitude 6.5+ events without warning. Smaller but seismically active regions like the Mediterranean, New Zealand, and the East African Rift add additional probability weight to the prediction. Historical precedent shows that truly quiet weeks (zero magnitude 6.5+ events) occur perhaps 2-3% of the time globally, supporting the market's 1% YES assessment as slightly more pessimistic than long-term statistical averages.
The resolution criteria are objective and verifiable: the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program publishes authoritative magnitude determinations within minutes to hours of detection, allowing traders to monitor real-time data throughout the seven-day window. The market does not depend on human judgment, media coverage, or institutional declaration—only instrumental seismic measurement. The specificity of 'exactly zero' means even a single magnitude 6.5 event anywhere on Earth during the period triggers a NO resolution. This all-or-nothing structure explains why traders have assigned such low probability to a YES outcome: in a world where roughly 3 magnitude 6.5+ earthquakes occur per week, finding the rare quiet week is a lottery-like event. The current trading volume ($15,063 over 24 hours) and relatively tight liquidity ($2,338) suggest active interest from traders viewing this as either a fascinating statistical edge-case or a hedge against catastrophic seismic risk.
What are traders watching for?
USGS publishes magnitude data in real-time; market resolves automatically based on instrumental seismic records.
Pacific Ring of Fire remains mechanically active; subduction zones capable of magnitude 6.5+ events any day.
Historical frequency averages roughly 3 magnitude 6.5+ earthquakes per week; quiet weeks occur 2-3% of the time.
Monitor May 11-17 USGS Earthquake Hazards dashboard for any magnitude 6.5 or higher detections.
How does this market resolve?
Market resolves YES if zero earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher are recorded anywhere on Earth from May 11, 2026 00:00 UTC through May 17, 2026 00:00 UTC, per USGS Earthquake Hazards Program. Resolves NO if one or more magnitude 6.5+ earthquakes occur during this period.
Polymarket Trade is an independent third-party interface to the Polymarket CLOB prediction market exchange on Polygon — not affiliated with Polymarket, Inc. Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. Every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. Polymarket Trade is non-custodial — your funds never leave your wallet. Open the full interactive page linked above to place orders, see order book depth, and execute a trade.
