Turkey 2026: 16% to Schedule Early Elections — Live Odds

Turkey's next constitutionally scheduled presidential elections are set for 2028, when Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's current five-year term concludes. Early elections in 2026 would represent a major departure from the planned calendar and would require either a formal constitutional change or a severe political crisis—scenarios traders currently assess at just 16% probability. Erdoğan's Justice and Development Party (AKP) retained its parliamentary majority in the 2023 elections despite severe economic headwinds, including 85% inflation and significant currency devaluation. The current low odds reflect market consensus that absent a dramatic coalition collapse or unprecedented external shock, the government will remain stable through 2028. However, Turkey's recent political history includes several instances of early elections triggered by coalition breakdown or constitutional amendment, and ongoing economic fragility combined with volatile geopolitical tensions means the tail-risk scenario is not negligible. The market price of 16% suggests traders see this as a genuine but low-probability outcome requiring significant political disruption to materialize.

What factors could move this market?

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has dominated Turkish politics for more than two decades, first as Prime Minister (2003–2014) and then as President (2014–present) following a controversial 2017 constitutional referendum that expanded presidential powers and shifted Turkey toward a more centralized executive system. The 2023 general elections—held in May on schedule—were viewed as a referendum on Erdoğan's economic management amid historic lira depreciation and double-digit inflation. Despite these headwinds, Erdoğan and his AKP retained parliamentary majority by securing 49% of votes, a remarkable showing under duress. The coalition government, stabilized by the ultranationalist MHP (holding roughly 49 seats), has shown cohesion despite economic strain. For early elections to materialize in 2026, several pressure points would need to activate. An economy-driven scenario—further currency crisis, unemployment spikes above 15%, or fiscal deterioration—could fragment the coalition if junior partners perceive electoral disadvantage. A geopolitical trigger involving Syria (refugee pressure, Kurdish PKK spillover), Iraq (border security), or the Aegean (Greece tensions) could destabilize the government if seen as mismanaged. A constitutional crisis or health event involving Erdoğan could shift coalition calculus toward early elections as a reset mechanism. What militates against early elections: The AKP has demonstrated resilience through severe economic cycles. Erdoğan's coalition controls state institutions and media dynamics. No coalition partner has signaled exit intentions. Historically, sitting presidents with strong coalitions rarely call early elections voluntarily, as they risk losing momentum. The 2023 result, despite economic collapse, suggests Erdoğan's base is politically motivated rather than economically driven, making a 2026 vote risky if conditions worsen further. The 16% market price reflects a consensus view that early elections are a tail-risk outcome—materially possible under stress scenarios, but not baseline. This low-volume market with modest liquidity is typical for low-probability geopolitical trades.

What are traders watching for?

• Turkish inflation, unemployment, and currency stability through mid-2026; a new economic shock could trigger coalition pressure for early elections.
• Coalition seat stability; any defection from MHP or smaller parties to opposition could force a government test or dissolution.
• Erdoğan health announcements, succession statements, or constitutional proposals; major shifts could accelerate the election timeline.
• Syria, Iraq, or Aegean geopolitical crises; security escalation could destabilize the government and shift coalition calculus.
• Parliamentary constitutional amendment proposals; formal calls to alter the election schedule could trigger early election timing.

How does this market resolve?

Market resolves YES if Turkey officially schedules early presidential elections by Dec 31, 2026. Resolves NO if elections remain scheduled for 2028.

What is Polymarket Trade?

Polymarket Trade is an independent third-party interface to the Polymarket CLOB prediction market exchange on Polygon — not affiliated with Polymarket, Inc. Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. Every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. Polymarket Trade is non-custodial — your funds never leave your wallet. Open the full interactive page linked above to place orders, see order book depth, and execute a trade.

Part of our Politics prediction markets coverage. Learn the fundamentals in our how prediction markets work guide.