The United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) provides humanitarian assistance and social services to Palestinian refugees across the Middle East. The organization faces significant geopolitical scrutiny, with ongoing debates about its mandate, funding, and role in conflict zones. The Nobel Peace Prize is awarded annually by the Norwegian Nobel Committee to individuals or organizations making outstanding contributions to peace. UNRWA has been nominated in the past but has never won the prize. This market resolves on October 10, 2026, based on the Nobel Committee's announcement. The current 3% odds indicate traders assess a low probability for UNRWA, reflecting historical patterns where UN agencies rarely win and competition spans many deserving organizations globally. Market odds may shift with geopolitical developments in the Middle East, changing perceptions of UNRWA's humanitarian effectiveness, or major international peace initiatives. Prediction markets on prestigious awards offer transparency into global expectations about organizational recognition and world events.