Macro Geopolitics prediction markets track global-scale events that influence economies, energy markets, and international relations. From shipping routes to diplomatic tensions, these markets help traders forecast outcomes that move global commodity and equity prices. Prediction markets on geopolitical events aggregate information from experts, news, and field observers into real-time probability estimates. Common questions in this category ask whether critical infrastructure disruptions will occur and when normal operations might resume. For example, markets frequently track the Strait of Hormuz—one of the world's most critical oil chokepoints—asking whether traffic will experience disruptions and if so, when normal flow might resume. Similar markets forecast outcomes for border tensions, energy supply events, and international disputes. What moves prices in macro geopolitical markets? Several key drivers: **News and escalation**: Military activity, diplomatic statements, and international incidents shift probabilities instantly. A credible supply-chain threat typically increases prices for disruption outcomes. **Historical pattern matching**: Markets reference past events with similar characteristics. How long did previous disruptions last? What resolved tensions? **Economic signals**: Energy prices, shipping costs, insurance premiums, and currency moves often react before geopolitical markets. Traders watch these external benchmarks for early signals. **Time-bound resolution**: Markets separated by resolution dates (end of April, May 15, end of June) let traders express conviction about when events occur, not just if. Earlier resolution dates typically trade at lower probability than later ones. **Institutional participation**: Central banks, commodity traders, shipping companies, and energy firms bring institutional-grade information and risk management into pricing. Prediction markets provide a neutral forum to forecast outcomes. Whether you follow energy security, supply chains, or international affairs, these markets surface real-time probability signals based on collective intelligence from diverse participants.