Tanker markets on Polymarket allow you to forecast crude oil and refined product shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most critical maritime chokepoints. Nearly one-third of global seaborne crude trade passes through this narrow waterway between Iran and Oman, making daily transit volumes a sensitive barometer for geopolitical risk, energy demand, and supply chain stability. These prediction markets track average tanker transits across three tiers: 0–10 per day (minimal flow, suggesting severe disruption), 10–20 per day (reduced throughput), and 20+ per day (normal to elevated volumes). Participants analyze historical shipping patterns, current regional tensions, and macroeconomic signals to forecast near-term traffic. Key factors that influence market prices: **Geopolitical Risk**: Regional tensions, sanctions threats, military incidents, or diplomatic escalations directly impact shipping willingness. Markets react sharply to any threat of closure or blockade. **Energy Demand & Oil Prices**: Global crude valuations and economic activity drive throughput. Rising prices incentivize maximum volume; recessions reduce demand. **Shipping Logistics**: Weather delays, port congestion, and fleet maintenance affect daily counts. Seasonal patterns and operational constraints create predictable volatility. **Policy & Trade**: OPEC production decisions, export restrictions, and international energy policy shift the flow baseline over time. Tanker markets appeal to energy traders, geopolitical analysts, supply-chain professionals, and forecast participants seeking quantitative exposure to maritime shipping dynamics without direct commodity positions.