Tariff prediction markets track probable outcomes in international trade policy, including US tariffs, sanctions, trade agreements, and negotiations with foreign governments. These markets aggregate real-time views on how tariff decisions might unfold, shaped by political leadership, economic conditions, and diplomatic relations. On Polymarket Trade, tariff markets span multiple dimensions: Will the US impose tariffs on specific countries or sectors? Will trade agreements be reached or renegotiated? Will sanctions be lifted or tightened? Example forecasts include outcomes on Iranian policy (uranium enrichment, transit fees, oil sanctions, asset freezes), Chinese trade relations, European commerce, and domestic manufacturing incentives. What moves tariff market probabilities? Key factors include: **Political developments** — announcements from government officials, policy shifts, election outcomes **Economic indicators** — trade deficits, import/export volumes, inflation, manufacturing trends **Geopolitical events** — international tensions, diplomatic summits, sanctions announcements **Corporate impact** — market reactions from affected industries, supply chain adjustments **Global coordination** — responses from trading partners and multilateral organizations Tariff policy uncertainty creates opportunities to track and forecast outcomes. Whether monitoring commodity prices, supply chain risk, or broader economic trends, tariff markets provide transparent, real-time probability signals updated as new information emerges.