The Toll markets aggregate prediction events centered on US-Iran geopolitical relations, specifically tracking potential outcomes around trade sanctions, asset access, and maritime transit arrangements. These markets reflect collective expectations about whether the Trump administration will pursue sanctions relief, asset unfreezing, or new frameworks for transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Key questions in this category span several policy dimensions: Iranian uranium enrichment restrictions, oil export sanctions, frozen asset unfreezing, and potential toll or fee structures for maritime transit. Each market represents a distinct policy outcome with defined conditions and timeframes. Market prices respond to several categories of information: **Diplomatic developments** — official statements, negotiation announcements, policy proposals, or diplomatic channel activity shift expectations about likelihood and timing. **Energy markets** — crude oil prices, global supply assessments, and energy infrastructure concerns influence how market participants evaluate the probability and impact of sanctions changes. **Historical patterns** — prior US-Iran agreements, failed negotiations, and established patterns of relations inform baseline probability estimates. **Temporal factors** — many Toll markets specify outcome windows (e.g., "in April"), making near-term events and calendar milestones highly relevant to price movements. **Regional context** — Middle East stability, adjacent geopolitical tensions, and international coalition positions create structural drivers for policy shifts. Participants use Toll markets to forecast policy outcomes, evaluate exposure to Iran-related economic or geopolitical risk, or understand aggregate expectations about potential diplomatic resolution. Price movements reflect real-time updates to probability assessments as information becomes available.