These two markets both predict a regime collapse in Iran but differ on timing: one requires it by May 31, 2026 (31 days from now), while the other extends the deadline to June 30, 2026. The May contract is more restrictive—a regime change after May 31 would resolve NO on the first market but potentially YES on the second. This creates a natural relationship where the June market essentially nests the May market as a subset. Anyone assessing the probability of regime change in Iran must first consider whether it's more likely to occur within 31 days or within 61 days. The price spread is striking: May trades at 1% YES while June trades at 5% YES. This 4-percentage-point gap reveals trader conviction about timing. The narrow May odds suggest strong consensus that a regime collapse in the next month is extremely unlikely—geopolitical transitions of this magnitude typically require months or years of institutional breakdown. The June market, at 5% YES, still reflects low base-rate expectations but acknowledges that an additional month provides more runway for unforeseen cascades. The spread implies that traders assign roughly 4 percentage points of probability to a regime change occurring between June 1–30 but not before May 31—a plausible window if conditions deteriorate rapidly but not catastrophically within weeks. These markets are highly correlated but not perfectly. A regime collapse by May 31 would resolve both markets YES. However, several divergence scenarios are possible. If Iran experiences severe unrest, military fractures, or large-scale defections starting June 1–15, the June market could resolve YES while May resolves NO. Conversely, if no major developments occur through June, both resolve NO—and the 5% June odds collapsing to near-zero would represent significant market repricing as the deadline approaches. The most common outcome (implied by current odds) is both resolving NO, with any movement toward YES more likely to appear in June first due to the longer timeframe accumulating risk. Readers monitoring these markets should track several leading indicators: military loyalty fractures, economic sanctions escalation, mass protest movement spread beyond urban centers, international mediation attempts, and regional military positioning. The May deadline is so tight that only a truly catastrophic trigger—coup attempt, major military rebellion, total economic collapse—would likely resolve it YES. The June market allows more gradual scenarios. Additionally, market definitions matter: "regime fall" typically means loss of central government control or ousted leadership, not civil conflict alone. Watch how geopolitical risk markets (oil futures, currency pairs) respond to Iran headlines, and whether international actors signal intentions to intervene or support opposition movements.