Zohran Mamdani is a New York City councilmember seeking the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination at 1% implied probability, while Eduardo Leite, a former governor of Rio Grande do Sul, faces a 0% price on winning the 2026 Brazilian presidential election. These markets represent two distinct political systems—a multi-candidate U.S. primary race spanning nearly three years versus a winner-take-all Brazilian general election less than a year away. Both, however, share a common theme: they measure trader conviction that these candidates can overcome significant structural and popularity barriers to reach their respective offices. The 1% and 0% prices reflect market consensus about implausibility. Mamdani's 1% acknowledges some non-zero probability that he could gain visibility, consolidate progressive voters, or benefit from unexpected primary dynamics over a 30-month horizon. In contrast, Leite's 0% suggests traders see virtually no path to victory in 2026. This gap illustrates how time horizon, candidate profile, and political momentum matter. A primary attracting dozens of serious candidates gives long shots like Mamdani room to survive and gain delegates through multiple contests; a two-horse race or clear frontrunner dynamic leaves little room for 0%-priced candidates to accumulate meaningful support. These markets are unlikely to move in lockstep. U.S. primary outcomes depend partly on economic conditions, Democratic base enthusiasm, and competing candidates—factors largely orthogonal to Brazil's inflation, labor policy, and regional voting blocs. A recession could boost democratic socialism appeal while simultaneously damaging incumbent-party fortunes in Brazil, which faces its own economic headwinds. The calendar also differs sharply: Leite's 2026 window is closing with the race largely crystallized, whereas Mamdani has more than two years for conditions to shift and primary dynamics to reshape the field. For Mamdani, monitor his visibility outside New York, fundraising trajectory, and whether the 2028 field becomes fragmented. For Leite, track recent polling and public opinion on the incumbent government. The 1% vs. 0% spread reflects a difference in structural plausibility: a few extra years, a more open electoral system, and lower incumbent strength can transform a long shot into a genuine (if still unlikely) possibility.