These two markets explore the viability of comeback candidacies in 2028, each asking whether a politically divisive figure can secure their party's presidential nomination. Market A targets Barack Obama, the 46th president who left office in 2017; Market B targets Kristi Noem, the South Dakota governor who briefly served as Trump's Secretary of Homeland Security. Both questions sit at the intersection of name recognition, intra-party preference, and historical precedent. Neither candidate has explicitly declared a 2028 run, and both face significant structural headwinds. Obama's path requires shattering Democratic norms around two-term limits and party succession; Noem's requires overcoming the perception that she lost standing within Trump's orbit after a quick departmental tenure. A 1% price implies traders assign a ~1-in-100 probability to each outcome, compressing both scenarios into the "tail risk" category—outcomes considered possible only under extraordinary circumstances. The identical pricing across two structurally different scenarios is noteworthy. Obama faces no formal barrier, but party orthodoxy strongly disfavors sitting ex-presidents challenging succession norms. Noem faces different pressure: Republican primary voters have shown little patience with officials who lose standing in leadership circles. The fact that both settle at ~1% suggests the market equilibrates two distinct failure modes—institutional opposition versus primary electorate skepticism—into a single improbability. Watch whether these prices diverge sharply if either candidate makes a visible campaign move. The two outcomes are largely independent, though they could move together if 2028 politics reshape nomination dynamics broadly. A Democratic primary centered on Obama's entry would be a generational disruption in how Democrats manage succession. A Republican primary where Noem mounts a serious comeback would suggest Trump's movement is more forgiving of setbacks than currently priced. However, the two races operate in separate party ecosystems with different incentive structures, so outcomes lack direct causal links. Both could happen, or neither, without creating mutual pressure. Key indicators to monitor: For Obama, watch for any public statement suggesting openness to running and endorsements from major Democratic figures—both would signal the party's succession norm may be weaker than 1% implies. For Noem, track statements from Trump and his inner circle; explicit re-endorsement would materially strengthen her positioning. General signs of nomination-rule changes or major party power shifts could simultaneously affect both prices. Historical examples from the 2024 primary cycle and how both parties manage incumbent versus non-incumbent candidacies will inform 2028 expectations.