Market A asks whether Tulsi Gabbard will secure the Republican Party's presidential nomination in 2028. Market B asks whether Donald Trump will win the general election. These markets occupy different positions in a cascade of political outcomes: Gabbard must first win the nomination to potentially compete in the general, while Trump's general election win depends on first securing the GOP nomination (should he choose to run). The relationship between them reveals layered assumptions about the 2028 political landscape. The 1% price on Gabbard's nomination and 2% on Trump's general election victory signal extremely low trader conviction in both outcomes. The price differential is subtle but meaningful: Trump's general election odds are twice Gabbard's nomination odds. This suggests that while traders see both scenarios as highly unlikely, they perceive a slightly stronger probability for Trump to win the general than for Gabbard to win the nomination. However, at these price levels, both markets reflect deep skepticism rather than confident short-term prediction. The narrow spreads indicate traders view the Republican primary as wide-open and fragmented, with Gabbard commanding only marginal support among nomination-focused participants, and Trump facing long odds in a general election context. These outcomes could correlate or diverge in several ways. If Trump emerges as the 2028 Republican nominee, Gabbard's nomination probability would likely collapse further as the field narrows. Conversely, if Trump signals he will not run or faces insurmountable opposition, Gabbard's odds might improve modestly—though she would compete against multiple establishment candidates and other challengers. A scenario where both Gabbard wins the nomination AND Trump wins the general is logically impossible. More plausible scenarios include Trump winning the nomination and losing the general, another candidate sweeping both contests, or both candidates failing to achieve their objectives. The correlation between these markets primarily operates through Trump's position: whether he runs, succeeds in the primary, and gains traction in the general shifts all downstream probabilities. Readers monitoring these markets should track Trump's official candidacy declaration and primary campaign momentum, turnout models in early states, Gabbard's media presence and endorsement momentum within the Republican Party, broader economic conditions and foreign policy events shaping voter priorities, and debate performance that could reshape the field. Watch for movement in related markets on the overall Republican nominee and the general election outcome—these provide essential context for interpreting directional shifts. Markets at such low prices often reflect tail-risk pricing and can be volatile, especially as major political events approach or external shocks alter the electoral landscape.