Trump Iran Military Operations Timeline | Polymarket Trade

These three prediction markets examine a geopolitical question through a temporal lens: whether U.S. President Donald Trump will publicly announce an end to military operations against Iran, with three separate outcome dates spanning April 30th through June 30th, 2026. Rather than a simple yes-or-no question, this three-market grouping lets traders and observers express differentiated views about both whether and when such an announcement might occur. This structure reveals important information in the price differences across the markets. If the April deadline trades lower than May, and May trades lower than June, the pattern suggests market participants expect any announcement to occur later rather than sooner, or regard near-term resolution as less likely. Steep price ascension across the dates indicates skepticism of imminent moves but growing confidence given more time. Conversely, if early deadlines command high prices while later ones fall sharply, it signals traders expect developments to move quickly. For readers reviewing these markets, the prices below aggregate views from thousands of participants worldwide, updated in real time as new information emerges. Geopolitical developments—diplomatic statements, military incidents, policy announcements, or international reactions—can shift these prices significantly. A major news event may move all three markets together, while more narrowly focused developments might affect only specific deadline markets. By examining how prices move across the timeline, observers gain insight into market expectations about the pace and likelihood of U.S. policy changes in the region. The prediction markets serve as a quantitative indicator of collective sentiment, distinct from news reporting or political commentary, and offer a concrete window into how the broader market community weighs competing scenarios.