Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?
About this market
Resolution rules are set by Polymarket. This market resolves based on whether the stated event occurs by the specified date. Visit Polymarket for full resolution criteria.
AI Analysis
Outcome uncertain — market split near 42% YES. Momentum is strong up. Informed flow observed.
No price history available
Quick CalculatorEstimate profit & loss before trading
If Yes wins+$138.10 (+138%)
If No wins-$100.00
Break-even probability42.0%
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
SignalsMomentum: Strong up24h Price Change: +8.0%Volume trend: steadyLiquidity: BInformed flowPrice forming
- Price jumped +8.0pp in the last 24h
- Momentum: Strong up
- Volume trend: steady
- Price move: Price moved up to 38.5% from 33.2% baseline — 16% shift
- Informed flow detected
MARKET SENTIMENTNeutral
BearishNeutralBullish
24h Volume$161K
Liquidity$111K
Current Probability42%
Resolves in22d
Low VolatilityVol: 6.5% → 3.5%
22 days until resolution. Price movements are small and decreasing.
Good entry point — prices are stable with room to move
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AI Brief
Trump's announcement of military operations end in Iran by April 30 trades at 34%, suggesting modest but far-from-certain odds; the +2.0% recent move indicates fresh bullish positioning, possibly tied to new diplomatic signals. The 24-day deadline is a hard catalyst, with any Trump statement resolving the market.
Anomalies
WarningPricez=3.3