Kharg Island, located in Iran's Persian Gulf waters, is one of the world's most strategically significant energy assets. As Iran's primary oil export facility and home to critical infrastructure, any shift in control of the island would carry profound implications for regional geopolitics and global energy markets. This page aggregates three interrelated prediction markets—each with a different expiration date—tracking whether the island will remain under Iranian control. The markets span from April through June 2026, a critical four-month window during which regional tensions and strategic dynamics could evolve substantially. The three markets ask an identical core question at staggered intervals: will Iran maintain control of Kharg Island? By offering multiple resolution dates, these markets allow observers and analysts to distinguish between near-term escalation risks and longer-term stability patterns. Markets expiring in April capture scenarios that could materialize over the next few weeks; those extending through May and June reveal market sentiment about sustained outcomes. Divergence in probabilities across dates is meaningful: a sharp spike in the April market might signal participant concern about imminent developments, while relative stability in the June market could suggest confidence in longer-term continuity. When all three markets move together, it often indicates a shift in the baseline assessment of regional risk itself. Prediction markets like these aggregate the collective forecasts of traders, policy analysts, and geopolitical observers interpreting available intelligence, regional reporting, and expert analysis. Prices update continuously as new information emerges—whether military movements, diplomatic signals, or strategic declarations from key actors. By tracking how these probabilities evolve across the three timeframes, readers gain insight into how informed participants perceive the unfolding situation and assess the likelihood of disruption at different temporal horizons.