Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?
About this market
Resolution rules are set by Polymarket. This market resolves based on whether the stated event occurs by the specified date. Visit Polymarket for full resolution criteria.
AI Analysis
Outcome uncertain — market split near 32% YES. Momentum is strong down. Informed flow observed.
No price history available
Quick CalculatorEstimate profit & loss before trading
If Yes wins+$212.50 (+213%)
If No wins-$100.00
Break-even probability32.0%
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
SignalsMomentum: Strong down24h Price Change: +0.5%Volume trend: steadyLiquidity: BInformed flowPrice forming
- Price moved +0.5pp in the last 24h
- Momentum: Strong down
- Volume trend: steady
- Informed flow detected
MARKET SENTIMENTBearish
BearishNeutralBullish
24h Volume$31K
Liquidity$27K
Current Probability32%
Resolves in2mo
Low VolatilityVol: 8.7% → 4.4%
83 days until resolution. Price movements are small and decreasing.
Trending but far out — price may revert
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AI Brief
Kharg Island's loss from Iranian control extends to a 30% probability by June 30 versus 22% by May 31, with the extra month adding meaningful tail risk. The -1% 24h move and higher odds than the May deadline reflect a longer intervention window that elevates military conflict probability.