Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
About this market
Resolution rules are set by Polymarket. This market resolves based on whether the stated event occurs by the specified date. Visit Polymarket for full resolution criteria.
AI Analysis
Market strongly expects NO (93% NO). Informed flow observed.
No price history available
Quick CalculatorEstimate profit & loss before trading
If Yes wins+$1150.00 (+1150%)
If No wins-$100.00
Break-even probability8.0%
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
SignalsMomentum: Flat24h Price Change: -1.0%Volume trend: coolingLiquidity: AInformed flowPrice forming
- Price moved -1.0pp in the last 24h
- Momentum: Flat
- Volume trend: cooling
- Informed flow detected
MARKET SENTIMENTStrongly Bearish
BearishNeutralBullish
24h Volume$26K
Liquidity$482K
Current Probability8%
Resolves in2mo
Low VolatilityVol: 4.9% → 2.9%
83 days until resolution. Price movements are small and decreasing.
Trending but far out — price may revert
AI Brief
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by June 30 sits at 8% with 2.5 months remaining, reflecting the market's deep skepticism of near-term peace despite Trump administration diplomatic efforts. The -0.5% decline suggests confidence hardening against a near-term negotiated settlement, though Trump-Zelenskyy talks remain a potential catalyst.